evening wrap, June 23

market vibes

“Ten thousand years from now our civilization will have passed without leaving a trace. A new race of people will inhabit the earth. They will come to Mount Rushmore and read the record we have made.” Gutzon Borglum

Disinflation swept through the markets with notable authority on Tuesday. Corn made new 2026 lows on June 15 and settled a fraction above them. Silver and platinum made new 2026 lows today. Sugar missed a 6-year low by 0.04 hundredths of a penny yesterday.

In the markets

July silver settled at the lowest price in 2026 tonight, putting all long positions in debit. These low $60s levels have produced sharp bounces in February and March and again … a mild pop in June. Today silver did not bounce.

The dollar closed on the highs, the yen made new contract lows and closed on the lows. FWIW a strong dollar is disinflationary.

August WTI made new lows for the month and quarter. Gasoline and heating oil did not make new lows for the quarter. The oil futures market is as necrotic as I have ever seen it… even on Christmas Eve. Open interest is plunging and volumes are low. Spec COTs are still heavily long.

The rest of the markets, stocks and bonds and bitcoin were more or less equally weak, and lower. I will cover that in more detail straight ahead.

my vibe