evening wrap, June 22
market vibes
in the markets
A featureless day of trading in NY followed a signed MOU in Switzerland. It seems, in my opinion, there is a lot of happy talk when the IRGC walks out in a huff and a pall besets the markets when the IRGC is peaceful. I could be wrong.
Oil has been flowing through the SOH for a week and even more went through today. Once the oil is out of the strait it is hedged, so the mood in WTI was decidedly unfrothy on the NYMEX. July WTI fell $1.41 in light volume. Murban futures fell 4%.
“FT analysis of satellite data from the European Space Agency counted 441 large tanker-sized vessels clustered off Sohar and Fujairah, the main ports on the eastern side of the strait,” according to Giovani Staunovo on X.
Large “tanker-sized vessels” in the context of the Strait of Hormuz and Fujairah almost certainly refer to VLCCs, capacity 2 mm barrels. These are the class of oil tankers used for long-haul exports from the Gulf.
If 70% were VLCCs and the rest a mix of Aframax and Suezmax the likely total of crude when all 441 were fully loaded would be greater than 700 mm barrels. As they load and leave, the long chain of tankers crossing the oceans to all corners of the world will form and remain in motion ad infinitum.
In other news, SpaceX confirmed its first-ever public $20 billion senior notes offering to raise funds for repaying a bridge loan and AI/data-center projects. SPCX dropped 10% and closed on the lows.
CME yen had another jawbone rally today (chart below). Even if the BOJ does intervene occasionally, rallies in bear trends usually make the market weaker and …the BOJ short USD.
in other markets
