Surfing is magic. Dennis Quaid
The outstanding move of the day in New York on Wednesday arrived at 6 AM EDT when Trump (the man never sleeps) told the New York Post he’s getting “less confident” about Iran talks. August WTI popped 70 cents. As the morning developed, DOE’s were underwhelming, and prices traded up $1.50 on the day. There was no confirming news that talks had broken down during the session, but the WTI market was already tense and got tenser.
Equities had an obligatory rip as CPI data came in soft. The dollar index fell under 99, as expected. Gold popped to $3,382 on the print (the top of the 30-day POC and value), where responsive selling chopped the rally in half in minutes. Bonds leapt higher on CPI. The 10-year auction went well, and Treasuries continued to rally throughout the afternoon. The arfing dog of the day was the S&P. Voted most likely to succeed, it fizzled, typically unspectacularly, but the algorithms were there to catch the trips and stumbles in tech stocks.
Scott Bessent has been everywhere all at once, and this afternoon he clarified a few things. A report that he called Musk a fraud is fake news. He met with Jamie Dimon “the other day,” and the CEO’s “Crack Comment” wasn’t necessarily a slur on Treasuries. Bessent thinks Stablecoin could lock-in dollar dominance.
Jeff Gundlach was on the wires this afternoon, saying private equity is in trouble and India is a good place to invest long term. Not one to mince words he said, “A reckoning is coming” for Treasuries, and gold is a real asset, not just a speculation.”
Quite a bit to unpack this evening, so let’s check the charts.
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