evening wrap, july 9

“Corrections are good, they keep us all humble.” Cathie Wood

From the FOMC minutes: “Total consumer price inflation—as measured by the 12-month change in the PCE price index—was estimated to have been 2.3 percent in May, based on the consumer and producer price indexes. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer food prices, was 2.6 percent in May”

I read this one. The committee was split about inflation and traiffs. “[a couple of participants] noted they would be open to a rate cut as soon as the July meeting if the data supported it.” Waller and Bowman, both Trump appointees, have been leaning toward a possible cut in July on BBG and X.

Apart from the coverage on the flood and Epstein, the items of interest today were a rising tone of hostility toward the Fed. I’m sure you are seeing it. Can you imagine if Powell got hit by a bus and markets started pricing three 100 bps cuts instead of one .25 bps or none? I can. I’m not betting on it but I can imagine it.

I’ve written more than usual about everything tonight but mostly oil… so let’s get right to it.