evening wrap, july 8

market vibes

“On the outskirts of every agony sits some observant fellow who points.” Virginia Woolf, 1931

Expect the unexpected has been my rule lately, even when boring sessions are unexpectedly boring. The wellspring of all activity is the President, and although there is no shortage of it, his utter control of everything is making Jack a dull boy. As the days go by and the road behind us grows longer, “certainty” does increase, but the comfort of certainty can be misleading.

Trump is still unpredictable. His timing keeps the markets guessing, but his determination to hit targets at a steady, albeit relatively ferocious, pace without certainty is dangerous for the rest of us. This creates a “Mother May I” atmosphere, and the markets are always waiting for the next command.

At 12:56 PM EDT, Trump said the US will impose a tariff of 50% on copper (chart below). He went on to say “wind is finished” and solar was a nice “little market,” but, “we need energy to run our factories.” Specifically, oil and gas, including coal. He spent some time on coal.

Comex Sept copper, 1-minute data, chart below.

More copper straight ahead, chiding the impatient in gold, a tutorial on T lines and the dollar, higher oil and a silent crash in natty, and… food for thought in the vibe.