evening wrap, july 16
market vibes
A dull and sluggish market settled most ranges on or near their session lows in NY today. In my opinion, high interest rates are beginning to take a toll on markets. Mortgage rates made new highs, precluding all but 40-somethings from buying a house. Two year treasuries are 80 bps above the FF lower bound. Silver made new lows for the year. Gold settled at a new low for the year.
Stocks can’t hold a rally despite S&P EPS growth expected around 23+% YoY (second straight 20%+ quarter) and stunning reports from the banks. MS and Blackrock posted very strong beats on Wednesday. Today UNH, GE and TSMC all beat estimates handily. Still, the indexes were lower all day.
in politics and finance
James E. Thorne on X said, “A former senior adviser to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has now been found guilty of lying to federal investigators about sharing restricted information with Chinese intelligence operatives.”
The FT said, “The wealth of the top 0.00001% of Americans is up to a record 12% of US national income.” According to Grok that is 35 people.
in the markets
We have a 3 day down wiggle in Sept WTI (not in August). If prices settle under $75.60 (the breakout void) that would be a red flag. Volume is decelerating. Front spreads settled on the lows. Cracks (refining margins) closed on the highs.
