evening wrap , january 6
market vibes
I’ve been writing a lot the last few days, which can be exhausting, so this is going to be a very brief note.
Silver had another strong but orderly day. The futures curve is still in contango. In fact, it eased a bit today on the rally. Open interest can’t break out of its range, indicating the shortage of futures sellers is still supporting prices. Silver is begging for selling and consuming it like a coal-fired boiler in a steamship. March settled at the highest close for COMEX futures in history.
Although its gains were subdued compared to silver and platinum, Feb gold posted the 3rd highest close in history.
Platinum posted the 2nd highest close in history. And March copper posted the highest close in history.
Apart from the usual January flows, stock indexes were featureless again on Tuesday, closing below the October 30 highs for the 45th consecutive session. All the Mag 7 stocks are flat to down in 2026. TBTF banks were lower after an ionospheric rally yesterday. Miran was on Maria this morning talking lower rates.
Major oil stocks were slammed today, giving back everything they gained on the Maduro news. The Trump tweet posted on Truth was posted at 6:46 PM.
WTI started falling steadily at 8:00 AM this morning. The implications are so many I won’t parse them tonight. I will say once loading in venezuela begins, the logistics moving 10 to 20 VLCCs are simply arithmetic.
No doubt the sales will mimic the SPR sales under Biden and be calibrated to harmonize with industry schedules already in place. I would expect the US SPR to use some of it to refill what Biden sold. The cash will go to Venezuela to help rebuild their wells.
Two things about oil: 1) RBOB cracks are down 40% since mid-November.
2) Heat cracks are down 40% since mid November. In a nutshell, this means crude is too expensive at $56.00. One of these days crude is going to fall down and it won’t get up, I think.
Bitcoin is obviously still joined at the hip with S&Ps.
my vibe
Although I have no facts to confirm a hunch, I think the moves in gold and silver are having a negative effect on stocks. The twin narratives that hurt stocks in Q4 were bad blood between Trump and Xi and AI wrecking employable human skills. There were a lot of layoffs in H2 2025. NFP on Friday will be one of the more important data release in months. Both of those narratives, RE and AI, are unresolved and lurking in the not-too-distant future.
Trump may be doing God’s work, but he’s throwing a lot of sharp elbows under the basket. The world is a well-armed and angry place. People everywhere are seeing the facts about grifting and fraud, other bad things: January 6 today. The war drags on. And…gold goes up…a lot…every day. Stocks do not go up except TBTF bank stocks.
I doubt if I am the only one who sees the same thing.
night all… good luck in asia….
JJ
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That Drummer had a real hard job to keep pace with Mark. One of my true guitar Heros. Thanks JJ.
Heads up... The link to the Knopfler solo is broken on my Substack page.