evening wrap, february 23
market vibes
A blue Monday …
…kicked off the last week of February in New York. And…bad news didn’t get better. Mexico is still sheltering in place and the cartels are road blocking 20 states. I would say it’s a coup but it is more like a civil war, or an insurrection with the cartel being the establishment and the government in rebellion.
Ukraine destroyed a major Russian refinery serving 86% of Hungary’s oil consumption today (via X). O. Slovakian PM’s statement. …. Orban’s statement.
Mamdani required 5 forms of ID to shovel snow for the City of NY (fact checked)… JPM copped to debanking Trump and about 8 other banks were in on it (Fox News), but they say Biden made them do it. The last time I checked trump is still alive.
So there it is!
In the markets
Gold came in higher and went higher. A third up-day on light volume and rising open interest in April gold. prices are the only thing moving which is fine. This is exactly what gold did last year for several months between 43200 and $3400.
Silver extended its rally from Friday and it is within striking distance of a test of the sell void on January 30… which is formidable. The obvious technical advantage both silver and gold share is the absence of any long open interest at risk. No one is long to sell it and as we know there’s a dearth of silver in the warehouses.
The known unknown is the size of the scrap melt and why after months of refusing to accept new scrap, the refineries are not issuing new bars. I think they are. They are just not coming to the public exchanges. At any rate… We shall see on Friday.
Three sessions remain until first notice day. March open interest was 43,971 contracts as of cob Friday and CQG spread volume was roughly 34K spreads today. There’s 88 mm toz or 17,600 lots of registered silver in the warehouse. The high of the day for March/May was a sweep or a FF in Asia. Most of the volume traded lower on the day.
I see no signs of stress in the March expiry.
Although the dates don’t align therising wedge in the Dollar index is a lot like gold. We have a few Fed speakers tomorrow although I can’t remember when any one quoted an FOMC speaker. A year? Maybe longer.
in other markets
Stock indexes were lower but the session was featureless without any meaningful development. Oil was thin and choppy in a narrow range pending some news on Friday when the Iranians and US teams plan to meet and discuss a deal.
Bonds spent a 7th day on the highs and as we know markets that cling to the highs usually imply unfilled buying below.
Last up… bitcoin futures had another shitty day on high volume indicating the roll to March from February by the nihilists has begun.
my vibe
These are hard markets for trading. Another reason to keep a place marker in bonds and note to self: DXY and bonds often trade together.
Some of the PM miners are smoking hot, FNV for instance. GS looks toppy. Tesla looks weak. Cheniere just closed above the 200 MA for a 3rd day. NVidia is holding 190 nicely. So there are some good stories despite the indexes. But nothing is trending… except bitcoin and that’s going down.
Funny you can make 4.5% owning bonds and pay 4.5% to own bitcoin. The one that’s going down charges you and the one that’s going up pays you. Why is that such a difficult decision?
a friend has two of these space aliens… thinking of getting one!
Fogerty … fitting.
night all… good luck in Asia…
JJ
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Market vibes is not a registered investment advisor. Comments, thoughts and opinions are entirely those of the author without any representations to accuracy and are for informational use only. Any mention of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or any other related instrument.
Acapulco today:
Sunny 76/83. In fact, that's every single day.
Traffic a bit lighter than usual, but all buses running. Taxis too.
Cafes, stores ,banks, ALL Businesses - Open as usual.
All Narco Provincial Roadblocks gone. I don't recommend country driving.
In Acapulco yesterday there were 2 cars, a bus, a cart, and OXXO store set alight.
I heard of nothing else and have friends here that are as digitally tuned-in as the rest of us.
Nobody but military and narcos were shot yesterday.
Gunfire was only reported near The Guadalajara Airport yesterday.
Random vehicles and shops burned throughout the region yesterday. I've heard no reports of deaths or injuries. Doesn't mean it didn't happen.
JJ, I have to think your Mexico Report was tongue in cheek?
The truth in your words do not escape me, but that's right out in left field compared to the reality.
If it is not a deliberate exaggeration, I might really have to wonder about the Mamdani news??
Footnote:
I am in Acapulco. Yesterday was tense, but that was from not knowing if the shit was going to get serious. Lethal serious. It did not.
I don't for a second think Mexico doesn't have a structural organized crime problem.
If I had to say which of JJ's remarks concerning Mexico are the most accurate, it's that the Government are the Rebels.
The routine death and carnage is relentless with no signs of improvement.
Yesterday was a knee jerk reaction by street toughs showing allegiance to the newly departed Jalisco Head Honcho.
The hard core guys got no time for burning cars, there's a boardroom shuffle in play.
In the end, it's an old story, and for Mexicans, very frustrating and very sad.
The comment about paying 4.5% to own bitcoin implies the holders borrowed to buy??
I presume this is tongue in cheek but perhaps too intellectually rigorous for me to be certain...