evening wrap, february 10

market vibes

February 10…)

“I heard at $60,000 the President is gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve.” Jim Cramer, Friday February 6, 2026

we’re going to run hot for a while

To say it was a quiet trading day in NY would wake the dead. I spent most of it reading social media because I had nothing else to do, and I found the slimmest mentions of silver in over a year. However, I did find this item: Schwab fell 7% on looming competition from a fintech platform called Altruist that said its new AI-powered tax tool can handle complex tax strategies cheaper and better. Raymond James and Stifel fell 7% to 11% as the entire sector shivered its timbers.

Risk off and FUD in crypto is as common today as froth and fomo were in silver in January. According to BBG this evening: “Bitcoin has just drawn fresh support from some of its largest holders. [So-called whale wallets] accumulated about 53,000 coins in the past week, their biggest buying spree since November, after weeks of heavy selling.”

in other markets

All metals traded like gold today so I won’t put you through the tedium of analyzing the same chart 5 times. Gold can do the job for all of them.

Volume was sequentially lower for a 9th consecutive day in gold. Open interest was flat for a 3rd day. The only technical difference for silver, palladium and platinum is open interest continued to plunge apace on similar accelerating deceleration. Seriously.

The Dow made another all-time high and settled 0.30 bps higher. Nvidia led the charge (haha lol). XOM notched a new ATH. CVX just missed.

The S&P and NDX were lower. ADP came in weak. Despite 2 million deportations we’re losing jobs and the attack of AI on Wall Street today is not an uptick for finance.

The media was guiding tomorrow’s jobs report lower all day. Since it was so incredibly quiet, I’ll bet bubble gum to Bitcoin whatever NFP is tomorrow, up or down, algos buy the indexes hard at 8:30.

The CBOT March long bond contract made a new high for 2026 (by 1 tick)… pennies count. Open interest is the lowest since Sept 2024 and trending down.

Kobeissi posted this chart of TLT (souce BBG).

What if Trump does fill the Bitcoin reserve? Is that any different than MSTR? Fwiw…miners don’t mine anything when prices drop under cost. Not silver or gold or Bitcoin.

Via CNBC Feb 10

Although I have no data to support a hunch other than rising OI and falling prices, BTC futures might be a touch short. Trump’s son Eric has his balls on the line mining Bitcoins. Just sayin.

Imagine we’re watching a movie. Squeezing the longs in silver. Squeezing the longs in Bitcoin. What is the opposite of whack-a-mole?

Who’s winning in silver at $80/toz.? The Chinese exchanges are obviously helping the longs in silver. China is playing on the gold team, too. Gold has a bigger market cap than US GDP.

But…who is winning in bitcoin? A very good question.

Under 31 U.S.C. § 5116, the Secretary, with the President’s approval, may buy and sell gold “in the way, in amounts, at rates, and on terms and conditions the Secretary decides is most advantageous to the Government.”

my vibe

Tomorrow the BLS will report on job growth in the US economy… which heretofore in recent years… they have so wildly misstated only idiot would put weight in their calculations. We have ADP and Truflation in real time now. BLS data is akin to using snail mail to trade gold.

However the markets are hungry for a narrative to validate. A higher NFP would debunk the AI jobs monster (70k). A lower NFP will reinforce its promise of a hyper productive new world. Weak jobs equals higher NDX. Retail sales were terrrible and the Dow made all time highs. The market is doing a good job of lowering rates without the Fed.

Sao Gan (Speilberg’s masterpiece)

night all… good luck in Asia…

JJ

PS… hodl and wait …

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg… occasional cartoons by Gary Larson

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