evening wrap
market vibes
March 25…)
“He too serves a certain purpose who only stands and cheers.” Henry Adams 1898
Today’s pause in stocks, or apex in oil, or bottom in bonds or necrosois in FX shared a common theme: unchanged at settlement. So, the wrap will be short this evening.
Copper made new contract highs in all listed Comex contracts today, putting the entire short side of open interest in debit. The rise has been orderly, but I'd expect a bump up in margins soon.
Silver outperformed gold by a wide margin today, with the G:S Ratio falling from 90.3 toz silver to 1 toz of gold yesterday to 88.4:1 today, PnL a swing of about $4000 per 1 lot pair.
The range in Comex silver has been in force for months and shows no volatile signs of breaking above or below its limits. But the 200D MA goes up 2 or 3 cents every day, indicating an imperceptible trend … and fair compensation for the 0.5 cents per day of contango.
May WTI settled down $0.20 in the pit and recovered unchanged in the post, ending a featureless day on declining volume. Front spreads fell a few cents. Cracks were mixed to unchanged.
In other markets, bonds rallied, and the dollar weakened slightly. Bitcoin mirrored the stock market with a small range and light volume, settling unchanged.
Today's proud winner of market vibes "lowest volume since New Year's Eve" award is… the Dow 30 E-mini futures! And like its derivative kin, Bitcoin… The Dow settled unchanged…
my vibe
It seems fairly clear to me that there is enough support for Wall Street's bread and butter to stop Bitcoin and stocks from falling precipitously. But there is a dearth of animalism or risk-on narratives anywhere in anything that Wall Street relies on to make money. I'm not sure why… other than public promotion of pro-Trump investments might show support for tariffs, which might alienate a lot of A-list clients.
In the end, your best client is money going where it's well treated. The Mags and the banks may be in a similar rut to the outgoing party. Food for thought.
Trump signed a dozen new memoranda and EOs today, shutting, cutting, and declassifying the entire Cross Fire Hurricane Files without redaction. All of it. If you recall this was the Steele dossier sting funded by HRC leading to the Russia Russia impeachment. In my opinion…this is the beginning of something “best served on a cold plate” and this plate has been on ice for 9 years.
Good luck in Asia!
Cheers,
JJ
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Great note and insights as always, JJ. Maybe the lack of animalism comes from the fact that the long-onlys are facing both an administration that wants this market lower and a Fed that isn't showing any signs of a cut (according to the last presser), whose next meeting is quite a few weeks away? So pushing the market up now with news esp pre Apr 2 seems like tempting fate