Has there ever been 2 consecutive weeks of margin raises in both gold and silver before today?
<<< Yes, there is a very famous historical precedent for this. While back-to-back margin hikes are rare, they are a classic "regulatory hammer" used by exchanges to break parabolic rallies.
As of today, Monday, December 29, 2025, the CME has indeed just completed a "double-tap" of margin hikes (the first around December 12th and the second announced December 26th). Historically, the most notorious instance of this occurred in 2011.
1. The 2011 "Silver Massacre"
In late April and early May 2011, as silver approached its all-time high of nearly $50/oz, the CME Group raised margin requirements five times in nine days.
The Frequency: This included multiple hikes in consecutive weeks.
The Result: The cost to trade a single silver contract nearly doubled in a week and a half. This forced a massive deleveraging event where silver plummeted roughly 30% in just a few days, dropping from $49 to $34.
2. The 1980 "Silver Thursday"
During the Hunt Brothers' attempt to corner the silver market, the exchange (COMEX at the time) implemented "Silver Rule 7" in January 1980.
The Strategy: While not always weekly, they moved aggressively to change the rules of the game mid-rally, specifically targeting the ability to buy on margin.
The Result: This eventually led to the "Silver Thursday" crash on March 27, 1980, when the Hunts could no longer meet a $100 million margin call.60
3. Comparing Then to Today (December 2025)
The current situation is being compared to 2011 because of the sheer speed of the increases: | Period | Margin Action | Result | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | May 2011 | 5 hikes in 9 days | Silver fell 30% in a week. | | Dec 2025 | 2 major hikes in 14 days | Silver fell 11% today; Gold fell 5%. |
Why does the CME do this?
The official reason is always "to align margins with market volatility." However, traders often view consecutive hikes as a deliberate attempt to "break the back" of a speculative bubble. By raising the cash requirement twice in two weeks, the CME ensures that only the most well-capitalized players can stay in the trade, effectively flushing out the "weak hands." >>>
What about Margin raises for Gold? Have there been back to back weeks of Margin raises for Gold?
<<< Yes, as of today, Monday, December 29, 2025, the CME has just completed a rare "back-to-back" margin hike for both gold and silver.
In the world of commodities, gold margins are typically more stable than silver's, so consecutive weekly (or bi-weekly) hikes are viewed by the market as a significant "emergency" intervention to curb speculative fever.
Historical Precedents for Gold Margin Hikes
While silver is famous for the "2011 Massacre" (5 hikes in 9 days), gold has its own history of rapid, consecutive margin increases during periods of extreme volatility:
August 2011: This is the most direct historical parallel to today. Gold was surging toward its then-record high of $1,900. The CME raised margins twice in quick succession (mid-August and late August).
The First Hike: Triggered a brief pause.
The Second Hike: Caused gold to plunge over $100 in a single day, essentially ending the parabolic phase of that bull market.
February 2016: The CME raised gold margins twice within the month of February (roughly two weeks apart) as the metal saw a sudden 15% surge.
Today (December 2025): The CME issued Advisory No. 25-393 on Friday, following a similar hike in mid-December. This "double-tap" has effectively forced the 4.6% drop in gold we saw today, as traders who couldn't come up with the extra collateral were forced to liquidate.
Why Back-to-Back Hikes Matter
When the CME raises margins once, the market often "powers through" it. However, a second hike within 14 days is a powerful signal for three reasons:
The "Leverage Trap": Traders who barely survived the first hike by adding cash are often tapped out. The second hike forces them to sell.
Psychological Break: It signals to the "longs" that the exchange is willing to keep changing the rules until the price stops rising.
Institutional De-risking: Large funds often have internal risk models that mandate selling when margin requirements become "unstable" (i.e., changing too frequently).
Comparison of the December 2025 "Double Hike"
Metal 1st Hike (Mid-Dec) 2nd Hike (Today, Dec 29) Total Impact
Gold ~7% Increase 10% Increase Gold fell from $4,585 to ~$4,350
Silver ~10% Increase 13.6% Increase Silver fell from $84 to ~$70.25
The fact that these hikes occurred simultaneously with the news of China's "Justice Mission 2025" blockade of Taiwan created a "perfect storm" of high volatility and high costs to hold positions. >>>
I knew this intuitively bc I had clients in silver in 2011 but it is fascinating to see AI encapsule the "hammer" in susch a concise way. The old rule for us was "higher margins put pressue on the weak side of the market." so it will be intersting to see what happens with margins now. Since the CME raised 5 times in 2011 it's reasonable to expect them to do it again.
The CME has no risk. They simply facilitate and oversee conditions. The Clearing Corp which is the sum of all clearing memebers including GS and JPM etc... guarantees performance of all listed futures contracts on the exchange. Should there be a default or a failure it is on them to fill the hole. Therefore that community is going to balance extreme risks with its tools within the exchangelike margins and OTC markets like credit and limiting hypothecation. Vertical markets impose special rules called survial of the fittest. We might not be there yet but not far from it either..
funny. i'm considering selling some physical silver (nothing huge and have had it a long time). called one of the shops here in Toronto and they're not buying until next week. hmmm. lol
I am going to hang on to all my physical gold and sterling silver. In fact I thhink fine sterling is going to regain its lost premium as the next generation realizes how icredibly beautiful it is in the context of a fake AI world. I have read as much as half of the total flatware prodiuced has been melted ... reed and barton, tiffaney towle ... caldwell... christofle... mappin and webb ... all these names are going to be highly desirable because they are becoming rare. I bought a pair of Buccellati candle sticks for penniies on the dollar in the 90s ... last sale at auction in 2016 was $3050 before buyer's prem ... do research what you have and paying weight for good names is probaly a smart play in coming years...
physical gold is something else. in this age of insanity, it's really the anchor to reality. i keep telling friends, you need to have some amount in physical gold as a basis for financial security. probably best stored offshore or in some private vault. up to everyone to decide what's right for them. but 1-2% doesn't cut it. not even close.
I'm really becoming enamored with base metals these days. With copper pretty much at all time highs, Aluminium has had a massive breakout, Tin getting close again to all time highs, .. and Nickel having an interesting two weeks... next week will tell us i guess once the holidays are over.
Yes but not exactly. I haven't read "cold comfort farm" but I intend to now! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P_1oFBbKZ4... What I meant was JPM has been pilloried by everyone for everything underhanded in precious metals for 40 years, including me... but as you can their shareholders adore them for it.
First time seeing your stuff based on the recommendation of PauloMacro. Your posts have been insightful. How did you get good at what you do? How can I learn? Any suggestions of books/videos etc?
Hi Abbas. I will try but I started trading in a time when we didn't have computers or screens...
First ...Learn to write code. Then apply your math skill to a deep study of all primary indicators... in every menu of "studies" in every trading platform. Be sure you understand what they "say." If you don't have that part rock solid, don't use them...Each indicator is a collection of parametric conditions that indicate stong vs weak/ trending etc. None will do your trading for you but they are a good cypher for the lexicon of activity.
***Look up Peter Steidlmayaer*** and watch a few of his basic YouTubes. My guess is, if you are serious and you work at it for a year ot two, you'll be well on your way.
***Trade small and carefully in this period. Knowledge is patient money... and worth much more than fast money. Above all you must have a view: up, down or I don't know. That gives you confidence to use indicators when you want to trade rather than trading because indicators tell you to trade.
Hat tip to Gemini...
I asked G
Has there ever been 2 consecutive weeks of margin raises in both gold and silver before today?
<<< Yes, there is a very famous historical precedent for this. While back-to-back margin hikes are rare, they are a classic "regulatory hammer" used by exchanges to break parabolic rallies.
As of today, Monday, December 29, 2025, the CME has indeed just completed a "double-tap" of margin hikes (the first around December 12th and the second announced December 26th). Historically, the most notorious instance of this occurred in 2011.
1. The 2011 "Silver Massacre"
In late April and early May 2011, as silver approached its all-time high of nearly $50/oz, the CME Group raised margin requirements five times in nine days.
The Frequency: This included multiple hikes in consecutive weeks.
The Result: The cost to trade a single silver contract nearly doubled in a week and a half. This forced a massive deleveraging event where silver plummeted roughly 30% in just a few days, dropping from $49 to $34.
2. The 1980 "Silver Thursday"
During the Hunt Brothers' attempt to corner the silver market, the exchange (COMEX at the time) implemented "Silver Rule 7" in January 1980.
The Strategy: While not always weekly, they moved aggressively to change the rules of the game mid-rally, specifically targeting the ability to buy on margin.
The Result: This eventually led to the "Silver Thursday" crash on March 27, 1980, when the Hunts could no longer meet a $100 million margin call.60
3. Comparing Then to Today (December 2025)
The current situation is being compared to 2011 because of the sheer speed of the increases: | Period | Margin Action | Result | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | May 2011 | 5 hikes in 9 days | Silver fell 30% in a week. | | Dec 2025 | 2 major hikes in 14 days | Silver fell 11% today; Gold fell 5%. |
Why does the CME do this?
The official reason is always "to align margins with market volatility." However, traders often view consecutive hikes as a deliberate attempt to "break the back" of a speculative bubble. By raising the cash requirement twice in two weeks, the CME ensures that only the most well-capitalized players can stay in the trade, effectively flushing out the "weak hands." >>>
Note...there is zero mention of Gold.
Cheers,
60
More Gemini...Follow up on Gold.
What about Margin raises for Gold? Have there been back to back weeks of Margin raises for Gold?
<<< Yes, as of today, Monday, December 29, 2025, the CME has just completed a rare "back-to-back" margin hike for both gold and silver.
In the world of commodities, gold margins are typically more stable than silver's, so consecutive weekly (or bi-weekly) hikes are viewed by the market as a significant "emergency" intervention to curb speculative fever.
Historical Precedents for Gold Margin Hikes
While silver is famous for the "2011 Massacre" (5 hikes in 9 days), gold has its own history of rapid, consecutive margin increases during periods of extreme volatility:
August 2011: This is the most direct historical parallel to today. Gold was surging toward its then-record high of $1,900. The CME raised margins twice in quick succession (mid-August and late August).
The First Hike: Triggered a brief pause.
The Second Hike: Caused gold to plunge over $100 in a single day, essentially ending the parabolic phase of that bull market.
February 2016: The CME raised gold margins twice within the month of February (roughly two weeks apart) as the metal saw a sudden 15% surge.
Today (December 2025): The CME issued Advisory No. 25-393 on Friday, following a similar hike in mid-December. This "double-tap" has effectively forced the 4.6% drop in gold we saw today, as traders who couldn't come up with the extra collateral were forced to liquidate.
Why Back-to-Back Hikes Matter
When the CME raises margins once, the market often "powers through" it. However, a second hike within 14 days is a powerful signal for three reasons:
The "Leverage Trap": Traders who barely survived the first hike by adding cash are often tapped out. The second hike forces them to sell.
Psychological Break: It signals to the "longs" that the exchange is willing to keep changing the rules until the price stops rising.
Institutional De-risking: Large funds often have internal risk models that mandate selling when margin requirements become "unstable" (i.e., changing too frequently).
Comparison of the December 2025 "Double Hike"
Metal 1st Hike (Mid-Dec) 2nd Hike (Today, Dec 29) Total Impact
Gold ~7% Increase 10% Increase Gold fell from $4,585 to ~$4,350
Silver ~10% Increase 13.6% Increase Silver fell from $84 to ~$70.25
The fact that these hikes occurred simultaneously with the news of China's "Justice Mission 2025" blockade of Taiwan created a "perfect storm" of high volatility and high costs to hold positions. >>>
Cheers,
60
I knew this intuitively bc I had clients in silver in 2011 but it is fascinating to see AI encapsule the "hammer" in susch a concise way. The old rule for us was "higher margins put pressue on the weak side of the market." so it will be intersting to see what happens with margins now. Since the CME raised 5 times in 2011 it's reasonable to expect them to do it again.
The CME has no risk. They simply facilitate and oversee conditions. The Clearing Corp which is the sum of all clearing memebers including GS and JPM etc... guarantees performance of all listed futures contracts on the exchange. Should there be a default or a failure it is on them to fill the hole. Therefore that community is going to balance extreme risks with its tools within the exchangelike margins and OTC markets like credit and limiting hypothecation. Vertical markets impose special rules called survial of the fittest. We might not be there yet but not far from it either..
Thanks a lot 60. New to me and valuable insight.
Happy to add some context.
Cheers,
60
funny. i'm considering selling some physical silver (nothing huge and have had it a long time). called one of the shops here in Toronto and they're not buying until next week. hmmm. lol
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=839656011774777 lol!
I am going to hang on to all my physical gold and sterling silver. In fact I thhink fine sterling is going to regain its lost premium as the next generation realizes how icredibly beautiful it is in the context of a fake AI world. I have read as much as half of the total flatware prodiuced has been melted ... reed and barton, tiffaney towle ... caldwell... christofle... mappin and webb ... all these names are going to be highly desirable because they are becoming rare. I bought a pair of Buccellati candle sticks for penniies on the dollar in the 90s ... last sale at auction in 2016 was $3050 before buyer's prem ... do research what you have and paying weight for good names is probaly a smart play in coming years...
physical gold is something else. in this age of insanity, it's really the anchor to reality. i keep telling friends, you need to have some amount in physical gold as a basis for financial security. probably best stored offshore or in some private vault. up to everyone to decide what's right for them. but 1-2% doesn't cut it. not even close.
I'm really becoming enamored with base metals these days. With copper pretty much at all time highs, Aluminium has had a massive breakout, Tin getting close again to all time highs, .. and Nickel having an interesting two weeks... next week will tell us i guess once the holidays are over.
Hi JJ, quick q, i see different number for dec12 feb gold (gcg6) oi
on bbg, it says 335k,why is that?
Tnks
Gm oleglamed, You're seeing February open interest, the number you see on my CQG charts is aggregate open interest.
It's a wonderful melodramatic novel satirising the metropolitan dream of the English countryside, written in the 30s.
I think it was a quote from Aunt Ada Doom.
I see the gals from "absolutely Fabulous " are in the cast... lol...
Does your reference "JPM, current resident of the Woodshed Motel," refer to Stella Gibbons "something nasty in the woodshed" from Cold Comfort Farm?
Yes but not exactly. I haven't read "cold comfort farm" but I intend to now! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P_1oFBbKZ4... What I meant was JPM has been pilloried by everyone for everything underhanded in precious metals for 40 years, including me... but as you can their shareholders adore them for it.
Tons of wonderful irony in this one 🤠
Hi Alyosha,
First time seeing your stuff based on the recommendation of PauloMacro. Your posts have been insightful. How did you get good at what you do? How can I learn? Any suggestions of books/videos etc?
Thanks in advance,
Abbas
Hi Abbas. I will try but I started trading in a time when we didn't have computers or screens...
First ...Learn to write code. Then apply your math skill to a deep study of all primary indicators... in every menu of "studies" in every trading platform. Be sure you understand what they "say." If you don't have that part rock solid, don't use them...Each indicator is a collection of parametric conditions that indicate stong vs weak/ trending etc. None will do your trading for you but they are a good cypher for the lexicon of activity.
***Look up Peter Steidlmayaer*** and watch a few of his basic YouTubes. My guess is, if you are serious and you work at it for a year ot two, you'll be well on your way.
***Trade small and carefully in this period. Knowledge is patient money... and worth much more than fast money. Above all you must have a view: up, down or I don't know. That gives you confidence to use indicators when you want to trade rather than trading because indicators tell you to trade.
Nothing works better than being right. .
Hi Alyosha, thank you for getting back to me. I appreciate your help and guidance. Happy new year as well and all the best 🙏🙏
Hi Abbas, quick explanation from a fellow reader: just do 50 years of trading and you'll catch up 😉🙋
I was kinda hoping to reduce that timeline to 5 years 😂
Understand you so well.....
Question J. J.
Did you see any evidence that "Operation Justice 2025" by China eased selling pressure in Silver, Gold or both?
"Operation Justice 2025" continues tomorrow.
Cheers,
60