evening wrap

market vibes

January 6… )

“Alea iacta est.” Julius Caesar at the Rubicon, January 10, 49 BC.

Stocks rallied on necrotic volume and open interest today. Prices were nicely higher early in the session but faded on light volume in the afternoon. There is a new January effect narrative that says the makets are not that long after all. But the tone of trading in January has been sluggish and reluctant.

In Early Decemebr smart money was bullish until mid Jauary. Now smart money is bullish until mid February. As I write, for all the trillions of dollars that have changed hands since the 6th of Novemeber the net gain for March S&Ps is actually afew bps less than zero basis settlement tonight.

NDX futures are higher but positioning and urgency to buy stocks is no better than S&Ps. NVidia and the Mags were up. Other than that it was another day of tumbleweeds.

At 9:50 AM EDT the Canadian PM resigned and CAD futures fell sharply on the official report. And, Trudeau actually isn’t leaving for months. The Liberal Party needs to organize a leadership contest to pick a new party leader. The next federal election is scheduled to be held by late October 2025. Until then Trudeau will preside over the transition.

The most important technical elements are the power of the trend, immense open interest and open trade equity held by the shorts. I’m looking for a spot to get long Canada. No rush.

Other markets were higher but techicals were mixed, dispositive even… oil copper bitcoin up next.