evening wrap

market vibes

November 25…) 

“Fate shuffles the cards and we play.” Arthur Schopenhauer

Gold took another hard shot today. On November 6, gold fell sharply in a $98 range on very high volume. Today, gold fell with similar urgency in a $107 dollar range. Most of the volume traded in the 1st hour but the backwash of selling echoed throughout the session, extending the range to new lows on the pit close. This kind of activity implies the seller (obviously 1 dominant seller) wanted the entire order completed for settlement tonight. Get me out!

Notes: Gold is still $80 off its lows. Open interest was already down 80K lots so tomorrow’s OI will interesting ( down again I think). If it’s higher, that implies new responsive buying, if it’s lower, depending on how much lower, gold is liquidating in a hurry. Finally, there’s a lot of red in this chart and a well-formed 1 bar false positive blue bar (encircled). For all the fireworks, it’s only down 4.8% from its ATH. Don’t call the gravediggers just yet. Save that for a close under the November lows.  

If you’re looking to lighten up this void between $2641.50 and $2660.00 should be a good spot. A close above today's Comex high of 2689 would bother me if I were short.  

Silver (to me) is tied to the rear bumper of gold and dragged along behind it. I saw some symmetry in OI and it might have something to do with a non-futures piece of the puzzle. I don’t think silver going far from $30. Not with the economic outlook. 

Bonds without comment. Boom. 

On to the rest of the board, bitcoin, stocks, dollars and Natty. And the place you cannot go.