evening wrap

market vibes

February 20…)

“It’s better to be absolutley ridiculous than absolutley boring.” Marylin Monroe

Fed Minutes this afternoon were wishy-washy at best, but the S&P rallied relatively sharply (15 handles) as the Dow and NDX struggled around unchanged.

I noticed this line as I read them: “this cautious stance included reduced downside risks to the outlook for the labor market”. Reduced? No. The President is pink-slipping everything in sight and deporting thousands, soon to be millions, of foreign born workers who according many sources, were the recipients of all new job growth in the last 5years. True.

Then: “business contacts in a number of districts indicated that firms would try to pass on higher input costs arising from potential tariffs to consumers.” Ya think?

Moving along: “uncertainties concerning the neutral rate of interest”, When is it ever a certainty… except when it’s zero?

Finally this: [On the other hand], many participants said contacts or surveys of businesses reported "substantial optimism" over the economic outlook due partly to expectations of easing in government regulations or changes in tax policies.

“From your mouth to God’s ears,” say I .

In the markets

The Dow E mini continues to shed open interest apace on a dearth of volume and tightly compressed range. It is late in the month. I would definitely go with a break-out confirmed by new monthly lows or highs.

The Nasdaq worked its tail off to hold unchanged. A close below 22,093.50 would be negative. New all time highs would be a relief!

The S&P demonstrated true leadership rallying and settlling +13 handles after the Fed Minutes. By the end of the post-close it was back to unchanged.

Gold spent a very quiet day with unchanged technicals, declining open interest, and declining volume. Prices didn’t stray far from the all time highs. There was a brief dip into the low 30s and I do mean brief. I have a sense there is buying below the market.

Silver was decidedly softer today, but not weaker. There is a difference. There was some pressure when gold came off and silver had a wobbly recovery as opposed to gold clingy affection for the highs. But managed to hold $33.00.

Friday approaches. I count about 28 mm shares of options with an average delta of ca 20 million up to $30 expiring. But I count about 30 million of delta in the March 21 calls up to $30/ share. So, maybe it pins at $30? or 29.90 ish?

SLV settled 29.82 tonight. If it gets through $31 at settlement … things might get interesting.

I have no clue what is happening with the supposed XAG bar shortage. #We have plenty in NY. I’m just not feeling the bullion squeeze that despite all the ink and chatter. SLV looks very tight tonight.

In other markets: Bonds and FX were a few ticks either side of unchanged for everything. Bitcoin was actually the blue ribbon dead body in the morgue today.

my vibe

I am actually running out of vocabulary with which to write about the stock markets. Necrotic is one of my favorites but it’s getting worn at the elbows. Cadaverous and toe-tagged are sturdy stand-bys. And of course, the handiest heel of the shoe: comatose!

Occasionally I toy with geriatric and decrepitude. Or narcotic, soporific and desultory. In a pinch, even dull and boring are ok. I do like indolent when silver gets oversold but that is a stretch and only for silver…. However, tonight the river is dry. The is gun out of ammo.

I wish I had a 357 magnum, two quarts of country Club and some Percodans so I could blow out the windows in my 1960 Falcon wagon and sit under a tree under the Arizona stars with my pal Zeke.

Tomorrow is another day.

perfect

Good luck in Asia!

JJ

PS A little off piste tonight. lol!

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

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