evening wrap, August 4
market vibes
Scott Bessent spent as much time on TV today as he did at the office, more probably with prep and make up. If he wanted to sell tickets he could have sold out Yankee Stadium. Personally I think he may be overselling his plan. The stock market did a far better job and the effect was powerful.
The most remarkable part of the intervention is the American stock market felt like it went up far more than the yen or treasuries… but the yen flew 1st class while bonds flew coach and brought their own sandwiches. Some thoughts on that in the vibe tonight.
in the markets lots of charts tonight
The DOW 30 felt ferocious all day but the move was actually quite modest. The rally was basically 2 names, CAT +5% in the DOW and Palantir +30% in NDX. Technically, the strong side of the market resolved an 8 week range into all time highs on tepid volume riding one massive all day TWAP across all 3 indexes.
The Dow and S&P were up 1.7 and 1.8% and NDX (the slow starter) was up 3%. The Mags were mixed but mostly +2%. Two thirds of all stocks were up. Half of all stocks are still under their 200 day MAs.
Hyperscaler heavy NDX still has hyper heights to scale (chart below). The S&P made a new ATH by .83 points or .01% on moderate volume.
The long bond has 3 distinct types of bullish development since the lows on Friday.
