I loved the story about your daughter and how proud you both are of her. Our son left an arteriosclerotic Australia last year for excitement and opportunities of Vietnam, and has fallen on his feet. His late grandfather (dad) was active in supporting the Australian military involvement against them in the Vietnam War and it goes to show how much the world can change in a short period.
Ty Michael. I have to say, substack is just amazing. We're talking about Australia, Viet nam the US west coast. It's as if you were living right down the street. Do you subscribe to Rupert Mitchell's Blind squirrel? He's Australian.. often writes about business in Viet nam.
It was my experience in ‘80s Japan that Australians were some of the most adventurous and widely-traveled of nationalities. Glad to hear that your son is keeping the tradition alive.
Yes, they make a shit ton. So does Apple and Microsoft. A couple others near their altitude too.
The thing is, for me, when does that money go to the owner? It's spend spend spend to keep it going and the only people getting rich are sellers of the business. Otherwise, you're riding the cycle of risk-on, risk-off. In other words, the greater fool senario. Exxon makes a ton too, but they have a meaningful yield. Etc. etc.
Seque:
Yield control may not be here yet, but it looks like Index herding might be?
The Fed:
There's lots of comical there. 1/4 point. 1/2 point. Like it matters past the hype cycle?!
Who borrows at the Fed Funds rate? How does a gilt obsessed wanna-be despot help confidence talking like Hugo Chavez? When will the "Crazy" move rates by the % points? You decide. I don't have to, because I'd never play there. U.S. government debt beyond the weekend? Lol. No thanks.
Ukraine/Russia
Ukraine resists or ceases to exist. They have decided.
Ukraine has allies who still recall Soviet times from first hand experience, and a few with memories of further back. The 40's. Say what we will re: who can afford what, and who's paying, that's not what is front of mind in Europe. England didn't fight The Battle of Britain after debating the budget. It is existential in their mind. It is also starting to look like a whole lotta Russian infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable. How cheap does oil get when 10% of the refineries there are on fire? 30%? It's happening now. Nobody opposed to Putin is fighting for anything but survival. I hear otherwise, but not with a rational that makes any kind of sense.
Your kids sound great. I'm not surprised they got smarts and an attitude to make use of them. Bold move, your daughter heading West. Wise beyond her years, and that's something I'd put money on being successful.
This is a conversation and perhaps an epistle that is being had all over the World.
“ I said, “Hey, you just spent $250k at Vandy. What are you going to do?” She said, “I don’t know, Dad. If I go to a big law firm for money, I’ll die at 40. Maybe I’ll be a truck driver.” Big hug. My wife gave her a debit card. “Use this until you get a job.” And she left, another millennial gone looking for America like it was 1970. I have no doubt she will find it.”
Super impressed with your positive Belief/Hope/Pray.
Your daughter is smart. And smart you both supported her.
A dear friend took a job of a lifetime to head an Australian company. Sold everything, house and all, and moved from Toronto to Sydney. When she got there six months later they merger w a US firm and according to her husband he simply didn’t see her anymore - leave at 7, home at 11 days. Two summers later they went to a wedding in Dallas; she had a heart attack at the airport and died. It was awful; family is still scarred. We miss her.
What transpired later was equally sad but I don’t want to get into personal family details. Your writing hit close to home this morning so I felt compelled to share...
I hope you write a few updates about your daughter. I was a small town high school kid in the 1970s with no idea what I wanted to be. My family couldn't afford college, so I figured out how to get myself into the Air Force Academy. I went because it was free college. After graduating I went to pilot training and was able to spend years as an F-16 pilot, the defining characteristic of my life.
well... the debit card was a genius bc we know where she is and as long as she keeps spending we know she's alive! lol... I keep thinking of that Wellington quote: Knowing when to retreat and having the courage to do it.
Arkansas. I have driven through it many times back in the days when I was going to school in Tucson, usually in the midle of the night trying to make Tucumcari from NYC in a single run probably 2 days on the road. Never stopped except for gas. but I can say I've been there!
(In jest) imagine the kids shine bright. I grew up in WA, visit often & note many changes which are not all positive. My chosen home of AK for 45 yrs also facing many challenges.
Wow. Great story about your daughter. There’s hope!
As for Nvidia, if I borrowed a gazillion dollars and went to a town called Nvidia, spent the gazillion, everybody in town would say “Boom”. Revenues are asymptotic Until my money runs out. Madness, but you have to play along.
On a less glamorous note, btw. Kudos to parents who raise kids like these. My wife just found a job in the townhall of a Parisian suburb. Her job is to revitalize the dying inner city stores. Graft, non-enforced rules on immigrant communities, lack of demand ... there is a long list, yet (probably false claim that George W Bush said) "the trouble with the French is that they don’t have a word for entrepreneur", first and foremost the work ethic in public administration is a true shocker for her. (As shown in the national accounts)
This is a long winded road to say, be happy, at least you guys can always head "West".
Thanks Martin, the world is their's for the taking. I suppose its our for the taking, as well. It's just harder to fight battles when time leaves more scars than muscles to fight them with. The list is very long. I miss Paris although I'm sure it has changed.
sending positive thoughts for your "Christopher Columbus" trek West. If she passes thru Newport Beach, let me know, we can have her over for a family dinner.
i have two daughters in their late thirties. they like nothing better than to sit around the "camp fire" and tell jokes about how "neanderthal" their dad is. this perspective is starting to rub off on my 10 year old granddaughter's outlook...
it got me to wonder what your daughter and mine would "talk" about at dinner....
btw, how quick do you switch channels on the television?
Good question, Marcus... Hard to tell.. this generation is covered with hard bark and disappointment from promies unkept... they might just nod in silent agreement for things better left unsaid and talk abot tomorrow. After all you're still a baby when you're 30. I have a remote so its dependent on how bad it is ! Lol. Doesn't everyone?
I add my vote of thanksgiving about your daughter’s story. We stand downstream but similarly situated with a 27 year old son (our youngest) with a BA from Texas and a grad degree in coding. And very few prospects.
He is also recalibrating. I pray for him many times day. Hugh Stephenson
Tell your daughter to open her own plaintiffs shop. It might b a little harder now but I went from negative net worth to substantial in 10 years, from 82 to 2002, and I have friends who did same. They didn't quit 10 years ago like me and have settled 3 class action in last 8 years that paid over 100 million in fees.
Ha. My son got his accounting degree, was studying for his CPA, and one day walked in and told us that he was leaving for Odessa TX to sell trailers. Hmm. Now he’s successful and happy, but a long way from home. My daughter just completed her masters in Nutrition and explained to me that she’s all grown up now. She called yesterday to say that the maintenance light on her dashboard was on….I guess I still have some utility!
I loved the story about your daughter and how proud you both are of her. Our son left an arteriosclerotic Australia last year for excitement and opportunities of Vietnam, and has fallen on his feet. His late grandfather (dad) was active in supporting the Australian military involvement against them in the Vietnam War and it goes to show how much the world can change in a short period.
Ty Michael. I have to say, substack is just amazing. We're talking about Australia, Viet nam the US west coast. It's as if you were living right down the street. Do you subscribe to Rupert Mitchell's Blind squirrel? He's Australian.. often writes about business in Viet nam.
Thanks JJ no I don’t but I have thought about subscribing to him. I didn’t know we shared the same country of birth. That provides added incentive!
It was my experience in ‘80s Japan that Australians were some of the most adventurous and widely-traveled of nationalities. Glad to hear that your son is keeping the tradition alive.
Thanks for the kind words Dave. We certainly get around!
Nvidia:
Yes, they make a shit ton. So does Apple and Microsoft. A couple others near their altitude too.
The thing is, for me, when does that money go to the owner? It's spend spend spend to keep it going and the only people getting rich are sellers of the business. Otherwise, you're riding the cycle of risk-on, risk-off. In other words, the greater fool senario. Exxon makes a ton too, but they have a meaningful yield. Etc. etc.
Seque:
Yield control may not be here yet, but it looks like Index herding might be?
The Fed:
There's lots of comical there. 1/4 point. 1/2 point. Like it matters past the hype cycle?!
Who borrows at the Fed Funds rate? How does a gilt obsessed wanna-be despot help confidence talking like Hugo Chavez? When will the "Crazy" move rates by the % points? You decide. I don't have to, because I'd never play there. U.S. government debt beyond the weekend? Lol. No thanks.
Ukraine/Russia
Ukraine resists or ceases to exist. They have decided.
Ukraine has allies who still recall Soviet times from first hand experience, and a few with memories of further back. The 40's. Say what we will re: who can afford what, and who's paying, that's not what is front of mind in Europe. England didn't fight The Battle of Britain after debating the budget. It is existential in their mind. It is also starting to look like a whole lotta Russian infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable. How cheap does oil get when 10% of the refineries there are on fire? 30%? It's happening now. Nobody opposed to Putin is fighting for anything but survival. I hear otherwise, but not with a rational that makes any kind of sense.
Your kids sound great. I'm not surprised they got smarts and an attitude to make use of them. Bold move, your daughter heading West. Wise beyond her years, and that's something I'd put money on being successful.
Here's to Peace, Health, and Happiness. 🥂
Superb take Leslie.
Thanks for making the time to think, write and share.
Respect
Much appreciated. Thank you.
I'll drink to that, Leslie. Here we go ... another day.
I couldn't help but notice the Fed similarity between J-Hole and A-Hole. tell me again where Powell was
to say what everyone else is thinking and leaves unsaid takes a certain kind courage... ahaha
I've never been that subtle. you read what I write
“Subtle as a Fist Fight”.
Forge on!
BOOM!!!! 👊
GM.
Sorry about being unreasonably prolific last evening!
Dunno what got into me.
BR
Everything is welcome here, sir, especiaaly such good natured comments!
JJ.
Last (musical ) thought from me.
Might resonate more strongly with us of a certain age… but would be great to share with yours when the time is right. https://youtu.be/kGZDdL7JoxY
Per my last message…. Here is one for your “New-Found Searcher”
Let us be lovers
We'll marry our fortunes together
I've got some real estate
Here in my bag
So we bought a pack of cigarettes
And Mrs. Wagner's pies
And walked off
To look for America
"Kathy", I said
As we boarded a Greyhound in Pittsburgh
Michigan seems like a dream to me now
It took me four days
To hitch-hike from Saginaw
"I've come to look for America"
Laughing on the bus
Playing games with the faces
She said the man in the gabardine suit
Was a spy
I said, "Be careful
His bow tie is really a camera"
"Toss me a cigarette
I think there's one in my raincoat"
We smoked the last one
An hour ago
So I looked at the scenery
She read her magazine
And the moon rose over an open field
"Kathy, I'm lost", I said
Though I knew she was sleeping
"I'm empty and aching and
I don't know why"
Counting the cars
On the New Jersey Turnpike
They've all come
To look for America
All come to look for America
All come to look for America.
TY Brian. Timeless… 1970. Sting did beautful rendition but ntg like the original.
Share when your “Dad Vibes” tell you it’s Time.
Have a good Labor ( Labour) Day Weekend.
Particularly…given our forthcoming surveillance state….
“Be careful, His Bow Tie is really a camera”….
She might be amazed at the prescience of S&G all those decades ago.
Oh JJ!
This is a conversation and perhaps an epistle that is being had all over the World.
“ I said, “Hey, you just spent $250k at Vandy. What are you going to do?” She said, “I don’t know, Dad. If I go to a big law firm for money, I’ll die at 40. Maybe I’ll be a truck driver.” Big hug. My wife gave her a debit card. “Use this until you get a job.” And she left, another millennial gone looking for America like it was 1970. I have no doubt she will find it.”
Super impressed with your positive Belief/Hope/Pray.
Godspeed All.
Your daughter is smart. And smart you both supported her.
A dear friend took a job of a lifetime to head an Australian company. Sold everything, house and all, and moved from Toronto to Sydney. When she got there six months later they merger w a US firm and according to her husband he simply didn’t see her anymore - leave at 7, home at 11 days. Two summers later they went to a wedding in Dallas; she had a heart attack at the airport and died. It was awful; family is still scarred. We miss her.
oof! that's hard. Sorry to hear it James.
What transpired later was equally sad but I don’t want to get into personal family details. Your writing hit close to home this morning so I felt compelled to share...
I hope you write a few updates about your daughter. I was a small town high school kid in the 1970s with no idea what I wanted to be. My family couldn't afford college, so I figured out how to get myself into the Air Force Academy. I went because it was free college. After graduating I went to pilot training and was able to spend years as an F-16 pilot, the defining characteristic of my life.
Hi Tim, My cousin was in the air force and he flew F-16s. Small world! We were born 1 day apart. It takes a special mind to do that.
It turned out to be what I was meant to be. At least for the early part of my adult life.
Tough, lawyers & headed to West Coast. My sympathies to you and your wife.
well... the debit card was a genius bc we know where she is and as long as she keeps spending we know she's alive! lol... I keep thinking of that Wellington quote: Knowing when to retreat and having the courage to do it.
What an amazing quote to have your brain recall in the context of your “Family Tapestry and the Seamstresses” to keep it Together .
It’s A Quote & a Thread That Binds So Many of Us Together …
Arkansas. I have driven through it many times back in the days when I was going to school in Tucson, usually in the midle of the night trying to make Tucumcari from NYC in a single run probably 2 days on the road. Never stopped except for gas. but I can say I've been there!
(In jest) imagine the kids shine bright. I grew up in WA, visit often & note many changes which are not all positive. My chosen home of AK for 45 yrs also facing many challenges.
Wow. Great story about your daughter. There’s hope!
As for Nvidia, if I borrowed a gazillion dollars and went to a town called Nvidia, spent the gazillion, everybody in town would say “Boom”. Revenues are asymptotic Until my money runs out. Madness, but you have to play along.
lol, gazillion. Good name for a race horse!
On a less glamorous note, btw. Kudos to parents who raise kids like these. My wife just found a job in the townhall of a Parisian suburb. Her job is to revitalize the dying inner city stores. Graft, non-enforced rules on immigrant communities, lack of demand ... there is a long list, yet (probably false claim that George W Bush said) "the trouble with the French is that they don’t have a word for entrepreneur", first and foremost the work ethic in public administration is a true shocker for her. (As shown in the national accounts)
This is a long winded road to say, be happy, at least you guys can always head "West".
Thanks Martin, the world is their's for the taking. I suppose its our for the taking, as well. It's just harder to fight battles when time leaves more scars than muscles to fight them with. The list is very long. I miss Paris although I'm sure it has changed.
sending positive thoughts for your "Christopher Columbus" trek West. If she passes thru Newport Beach, let me know, we can have her over for a family dinner.
I certainly will. ty sir.
i have two daughters in their late thirties. they like nothing better than to sit around the "camp fire" and tell jokes about how "neanderthal" their dad is. this perspective is starting to rub off on my 10 year old granddaughter's outlook...
it got me to wonder what your daughter and mine would "talk" about at dinner....
btw, how quick do you switch channels on the television?
Good question, Marcus... Hard to tell.. this generation is covered with hard bark and disappointment from promies unkept... they might just nod in silent agreement for things better left unsaid and talk abot tomorrow. After all you're still a baby when you're 30. I have a remote so its dependent on how bad it is ! Lol. Doesn't everyone?
I add my vote of thanksgiving about your daughter’s story. We stand downstream but similarly situated with a 27 year old son (our youngest) with a BA from Texas and a grad degree in coding. And very few prospects.
He is also recalibrating. I pray for him many times day. Hugh Stephenson
Tell your daughter to open her own plaintiffs shop. It might b a little harder now but I went from negative net worth to substantial in 10 years, from 82 to 2002, and I have friends who did same. They didn't quit 10 years ago like me and have settled 3 class action in last 8 years that paid over 100 million in fees.
Gm, sir. I would if she's listen to me. But you know how that goes.
Ha. My son got his accounting degree, was studying for his CPA, and one day walked in and told us that he was leaving for Odessa TX to sell trailers. Hmm. Now he’s successful and happy, but a long way from home. My daughter just completed her masters in Nutrition and explained to me that she’s all grown up now. She called yesterday to say that the maintenance light on her dashboard was on….I guess I still have some utility!
That’s a good thing!
Per my last message… here’s the UTUBE version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=kGZDdL7JoxY&dp_isNewTab=1&dp_referrer=other&dp_allowFirstVideo=1