12 Comments
User's avatar
SnarkyTrader's avatar

TLT feels like it is at an uncle point.

The Whispering Candle's avatar

Some nice little nuggets here. It's time to write a book, Alyosha.

-A market that clings to its lows implies unfilled selling above.

-If a narrative or indicator is not validated by prices… ignore it.

-A failed auction is a clear rejection when a market attempts to extend its range into a new significant high (or low as the case may be).

-Quiet markets go where they want to go because no one is threatened by light volume and small ranges.

Jim Lane's avatar

Marty Zweig?

Alyosha's avatar

GM Jim... The failed auction is a pete steidlmayer indicator. The rest ... just rambling intuitions.

Marty Zweig ... https://ritholtz.com/2024/09/marty-zweig-trading-rules/

Martin's avatar

For grins: Google says 2.65 today was worth 1.04 in 1990. And 2.65 in 1990 is worth 6.77 today. We are so lucky because of geography and science. Meanwhile, still splitting wood for my stove. Elon needs to forget Mars and get me a robot!!!

Alyosha's avatar

soon enough sir and no return policy.

Jordan's avatar

Thanks JJ. I appreciate the info.

Jordan's avatar

Would anybody be able to recommend an analyst or any reading materials that covers treasuries and how they effect the broader market? I’m recently learning this stuff and feel I’m lacking understanding in that area?

Alyosha's avatar
5dEdited

HI Jordan, Just go on AI and ask for a list with essential descriptions of content and level of expertise required for the reader. These books are expensive so I would identify the ones you want to read and get them from the library. You'd be surprised how quickly half read books on markets can pile up.

Check out "Grant's Interest Rate Observer" and see if you can get a trial subscription. Jim Grant is one of the most entertaining and readable market historians and fixed incom analysts.

Bob Haskel's avatar

Just to stipulate, "Trump would rather lose 10 billion dollars than lose 10 soldiers" as long as it's not his money.

Victor Adair's avatar

Hey JJ: on the Legacy COT data (as of August 11) total net spec copper longs are at (at least) 10 year highs. On the disaggregated version total net long managed money together with retail specs looks to be at least at 5 year highs. You mentioned the backwardation narrative is attracting new longs - but COMEX is clearly in contango (is there backwardation in spot/futures?) Thanks for the heads-up on the 3W down wiggle. Thanks for the Jeff Beck link - I'd never heard that. Enjoy the last couple of weeks of August; I can't wait for the "back-to-reality" markets post-Labor Day. Cheers, Victor

Alyosha's avatar

Ty Victor and ty for the heads up on copper COTs.