evening wrap, August 14

market vibes

A very few brief remarks tonight. Going to Canada for dinner.

Starting with Bitcoin. I didn’t see any news. Technically, an outside reversal might have been bad if OI were bloated and the market was frothy. That’s not the case here.

If Bitcoin were trading at $125,000, IBIT would be well into the $70s, and the expiry tomorrow would have put a call on the APs for at least 17 million shares of IBIT between $67 and $70 and 30 million shares up to $75/share (detail below).

Did $125k = $75/share? I don’t know. But I do think, after seeing the smackdown last night, someone ought to call Saylor and say, “Dude, this is your moment.””

I asked Grok: If the IBIT APs need to create 20 million shares of IBIT tomorrow, how many Bitcoins will they need to buy?

Final Answer

To create 20 million shares of IBIT tomorrow, August 15, 2025, Authorized Participants would need to buy approximately 11,355 Bitcoins, based on the basket creation requirement of 22.71 Bitcoins per 40,000-share basket. For exactness, in a nutshell, according to AI, if IBIT closes above 71ish, the APs will need to create 11,000 (approximately $1.5 billion USD). About equal to expiration risk in SLV.

Oil was well bid today; the only news I saw was tense trading in front of the summit in Alaska. Refiners need oil, and no doubt they were hedging jic the meeting goes sideways.

If the meeting goes well, there will be more meetings, but the top of the hill will be shared by Putin and Trump tomorrow, in my opinion. Sept crude was up $1.32 on light volume in thin conditions. Spread deltas were higher with flat prices.

Gold held the POC but did not attract any responsive buying. Silver was a little better bid but nothing notable in front of the SLV expiration tomorrow. I’ll update the August 15 option strip tomorrow morning.

Copper continues to trade horizontally and liquidate OI in light volume.

I was looking for a 1 bar false positive in DXY and I got one.

The Yen was weak.

And the euro was down. A close in Sept euro under 1.15590 would be negative. You know I’m friendly to the dollar so … there’s that.

In other markets, stocks wandered more or less the way they did after CPI, reflecting the tilt of the CPI and PPI data: bullish but dead yesterday and bearish but dead today.

a nice old school tune to end the day

Night all… good luck in Asia

JJ

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