evening wrap. april 21
market vibes
Trading in NY resembled Samuel Beckett’s mega-bore “Waiting For Godot” for the umpteenth time since the curtain went up on this Strait of Hormuz drama. And it is a fitting allegory because the storied playwright’s main character, Godot, signifying war… never comes! However, a few minutes after the stock market closed Trump tweeted this as if Beckett had written the tweet himself:
When the White House said Vance’s trip to Islamabad was put on hold, the only curiosity that held the markets in check was what the latest trap door would look like. This tweet makes sense. You can’t bomb a madman for visions of grandeur. But now what? We wait for one of three things to happen….
Door #1:
If Iran destroys or severely harms GCC oil infrastructure, the world will be forced to buy dollars to buy American oil. In my opinion, the shortage of dollars is probably bigger than the shortage of oil. If this happens the world will need treasuries… another mega short position with a ghastly negative carry in which the ETF % short interest is equal to GameStop and AMC in 2021.
Door # 2:
