evening wrap
market vibes
October 17 …)
The price of gold one year from today
The ECB cut .25 as expected and guided to another .25 in December. Trading post presser implied at 20% shot at a .50 cut.
On the Bell…*NETFLIX 3Q STREAMING PAID NET CHANGE +5.07M, EST. +4.52M *NETFLIX SEES FY 2025 REV $43B TO $44B, EST. $43.4B
In oil today
The DOE reported gasoline inventories fell to a 52-week low as of October 11, with yoy lows in PAAD 3 and PAAD 5. Rbob prices were little changed. Spot rbob cracks fell .40cents to 13.60. A generally random weekly report with few imbalances other than rbob but PAAD 3 runs are picking up, so this is probably the seasonal low. Flat prices and spreads across the complex did nothing.
The Vix finally poked a hole in the bottom of vol. An early rally in stock indexes was sold rather hard on the opening and prices wandered aimlessly for the rest of the session. The mood of the market seems confident they won’t go down but there is not much appetite among the longs to get longer. Volumes were higher but typically light.
Long bonds fell sharply on hawkish retail sales and Philly Fed reports. Intial claims were lower than expectations.
Spiking the dollar index higher which pushed gold to a new high on the comex.
And new all time highs in Yen ( below) and Euros and CNH etc…But no Champagne popping or dancing in the moonlight like we did in the 20th century. Algos don’t drink and dance.
In other markets recession is audible
