evening wrap
market vibes
March 17…)
In the news today
JFK files are due to be released tomorrow.
In an unexpected ruling from the DC District court, Elon Musk was ordered to return the astronauts to space, according to the Babylon B.
Jay Powell and company will caucus for day 1 at the Eccles Building tomorrow.
In the NY markets today
Comex May copper made new highs for the move approaching yoy highs made last May 20, 2024 during the “roll squeeze” when May/July traded as much as +.12 back from -.04. Apparently China is supportive of a higher price. Technical activity in NY remains almost non existent, zero growth in volume and open interest is necrotic.
AI is leveling off, stable and hungry for power. Trump’s somkestack thesis is getting gold-card creds. China has copper we need.
Gold was typically chill for a 3rd session => $3000/toz. All Comex gold futures settled at a new high closes; a notable financial event putting the entire short side of open interest in debit from the beginning of time to present.
S&P E-minis got off to a sluggish start in the shadow of a sluggish retail sales report at 8:30 EDT. However, the DOW was unfazed and steadily ground higher all morning. NDX was a notable laggard. At noon, a few buy-side TWAPs kicked into all three indexes simultaneously, and all stocks rallied together in lockstep until 3 PM.
Volume was the highest of the year. Considering the blase’ tone, I think some rolls are adding to the flows and Bloomey is showing June as top step this morning. The T-witch is slated for Friday, March 21. More on this in the vibe.
NDX in 5-minute data today:
Selling into the close on the highest tick volume of the session… What looked like a decisive day for the bulls ended with a technical pop fly. My best guess is what looked like solid new buying may have been short covering, at least in part. The close implied long-time-frame sellers are still actively benching sale to settlement.
Next up …WTI front spreads broke lower today. Heat cracks on multi-year lows. Bitcoin: “Is there life after an ETF?” A notable divergence in USD FX pairs that looks like the wagons are circling the Yen. And Powell may need a magic wand to get out the bathtub dry on Wednesday in the vibe. Here we go!
