evening wrap

market vibes

March 3… )

OPEC+ plans to begin a long-delayed supply hike by adding 138,000 bpd in April, with plans to restore 2.2 million bpd by 2026, according to BBG this afternoon. “This gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions,” according to the statement. April WTI (Chart below) had been leaning lower all day and lost $1.20 on the news.

Tecnically, WTI is in a steady downtrend digging into some dense support at $68.00. This is fundamental news. It may require a new auction to fully discount an additional 2.2 mm bpd from OPEC by 2026 concurrently with Trump encouraging higher US production by about the same amount at the same time. Four milliona day by January 2026 is a lot of oil.

Judging from DOE stats no one is carrying a lot of inventory. The front 3 (April July) are in relatvely tight backwardation. The 3 month roll fell .38 to a low of .99 on the news and bounced .20 immediately. A tight curve won’t stop a bear move in flat prices. I have traded many bear moves with the curve in backwardation, most of big ones… actually.

Stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold and a declarative day in the vibe… here we go