evening wrap

market vibes

February 25… )

The tell this morning for all markets was a $7,500 drop in Bitcoin. Pundits on X were posting MSTR clickbait; “forced liquidation”, down 50% from November etc… I mentioned Saylor was trying to get ahead of this last night in the wrap. Silly I thought, to tell everyone you’re expecting a dump.

At any rate, IBIT led the coin higher all day on high volume, and the ETF settlement left a potentially bullish hammer formation. A sustained gap higher would be positive.

However, BTC the futures market is not bullish at all… a gap lower on high volume and falling OI. The market often speaks in tongues, and these two charts are saying black and white.

In the stock market, WMT rallied today, offering leadership to the DOW. NDX was weak on a ghastly European sales report from TSLA. Technically, I would rate the NDX with WTI for bearish confirmation. But you know, the difference is …stocks have friends…

Moving along with the usual checkdown in oil ( a very bearish day) and gold (an iffy but bearish day), silver pre first notice day and a tightening roll, and bonds looking better and better every day. plus a follow up on Brinks in the vibe ( think of of it like a hotel for gold)…