evening wrap

market vibes

December 10 …)

“We are masters of unsaid words but slaves of those we let slip out.” Churchill

Gold is an easy read this evening. Sixteen sessions of narrow low volume horizontal activity finally resolved higher on moderately rising volume and about 20k lots (2mm toz) of rising OI. Continuing higher prices with higher OI and volume would be a text book resumption of trend. One day at a time.

Copper prices were little changed on sluggish technical development. It’s not sexy but its positive.

In other markets

Silver prices continued to hover just beneath millions of shares of SLV call gamma in a narrow range, on very light volume and dull trading.

Interest rates went up in front of CPI tomorrow which is expected to be higher at .4% month over month. The dollar was well bid vs Yen and particularly steady vs CHF. CNH threatened new highs when the tariff talk was heated last week but fell back a bit from 7.30 to 7.25 (chart below). If you’re long gold watch this one.

Bitcoin is digesting recent profit taking at $100k. OI is stable, volume has markedly decelerated indicating zero stress at current prices (next chart).

The breakaway gap noted below might not be filled for years if ranges resume their trend soon and make new highs. However, if the gap is filled, I’d consider cutting my risk. If prices drop swiftly beneath it, trapped money may need to liquidate. I am not a fan but I am bullish as long as the gap stays in force.

Crude oil, the curve, flat prices, cracks and products wandered aimlessly as usual. Nat gas was sharply lower on forecasts of warmer weather in the morning but rallied to make a new high in the post. I didn’t see any further reports on the weather.

Stocks were soft all day.

ping pong masters

Rupert

Good luck in Asia

JJ

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

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