evening wrap
market vibes
April 10…)
Question: How do you find fraud in the Federal government? Elon Musk: “Look in any direction.”
the markets today
I got a late start on this. just a few lines tonight…
A CPI report this morning was surprisingly dovish.
In the bonds, BBG reported a successful 30 year auction but the market went straight down fter the results. Open interest fell again. Volumes were moderate. These big moves on thin volume lend creds to a stress narrative in the treasury market. I read the word “freeze” in comments yesterday.
Another slippery, whippy day of mood swings in S&Ps. Equities were completely indifferent to dovish inflation news. Definitely an oatmeal after Champagne session. JPM, Wells, and BlackRock report tomorrow.
Gold is making all time highs as I write… volume was moderate today, and the tone of trading was orderly and steady. No urgency or stress.
These gold and silver charts (above and below) tell a graphic story. Gold is trending freely, completely unchallenged. Silver is struggling to pierce a void from $31 to $32. If gold keeps going up I think silver will ultimately find a sponsor. However, no sign of that happening, now.
Oil looks similar silver, but they are, of course, very different. Oil has a defined narrative, and it is a vast, slow-moving strategic commodity. Silver is a mercurial and unpredictable precious metal.
At any rate, the charts say buying silver because gold is higher is a loser. New game for the time being… new rules. Same idea in oil, but we’re making up the rules as we go along.
Bellwether Dec Red Dec settled a very unbullish $.78 contango … Isolated lows can and do fail. It takes time and development, but the moves can be big if and when they do. We’ll see. I’ll keep you informed as this one develops.
Finally tonight, Yen futures are developing higher above the 200 D MA on strong daily volumes and volatile ranges.
The Yuan/Yen cross is going down… whatever the tariff situation is, it sure looks like the Yen is going higher.
my vibe
It is possible, even likely, markets will trade horizontally for a few weeks except gold. I saw Goolsbee on the news feed this afternoon. I didn’t even bother to read his comments. Bonds got hosed and a hard downtick in CPI…No one is listening to the Fed.
If everyone is a genius in a bull market. Everyone is on their own in a bear market. There are no friends, no allies, and certainly no goodwill. Plenty of advice from Goolsbee and company.
good vibes to end the day sound up
Good night New York, good luck Asia!
JJ
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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg
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OT again. Can anyone point me to Druckenmiller saying positive words about Bessent. I know they exist.
Good Morning Tiger.
“If everyone is a genius in a bull market. Everyone is on their own in a bear market. There are no friends, no allies, and certainly no goodwill. “
I will repeat my comment of yesterday. “Gold=Trend. JJ=Friend.”
Me & the JJ posse are sooo glad our lives collided…even if only digitally .
Thx! 🙏💪