evening wrap
market vibes
March 20… )
“Guessing what the pitcher is going to throw is 80% of being a successful hitter. The other 20% is just execution.” Hank Aaron
Oil is up first tonight…
The US sanctioned Iranian oil exports this morning, and WTI rallied 2%. Analysts at Ship & Bunker said Iran is exporting 3 mm bpd, and the max influence might inhibit 1.5 mm barrels at peak. Trump may extend the deadline for Chevron to continue to produce in Venezuela for another month.
My take on the CVX extension is an indication how long Trump thinks it will take to settle the deal with Iran. Chris Wright, US Energy Secretary, said, “It is going to be easier to produce oil and gas in America. More supply is going to come.”
OPEC+ plans to increase BPD selectively in April, issuing a complicated schedule both cutting bpd (for Iran primarily) and raising bpd for a basket of other members, with Russia increasing the most. The net to supply seems to be a push, but that won’t stop sentiment. JPM forecast Brent prices in the mid 70s this morning.
Open interest is down ca 70k in March. There wasn’t a lot of risk either way to put a fresh price on the news.
Gold made another record high in Asia last night and held steady on light volume and creeping OI in NY today. Prices finished near the highs as early Asia started trading in NY after the pit close
There is no premium to London on the SGE, according to BBG. Therefore, “the bid” must have some other organic origin because it never gets filled.
Copper, mirroring gold again today, rising in silence, although open interest, unlike gold, is accelerating higher. This is pro-trend activity, imo, but it would be nice to see volume accelerating up as well.
Perhaps that means the real move in gold hasn’t begun yet. Silence and bottoms are common. Investors are depressed and broke. Silence at tops? Incredibly rare. Investors are deep in the money here with immense free exposure.
Up next, a technical discussion with charts covering stock indexes in various time samples. A little longer and wonkier than usual. An hourly bond chart supporting my thoughts on today and a few tips on trading in the vibe. Here we go.
