evening wrap

market vibes

January 30 …)

“Ay, now the plot thickens very much upon us.” George Villiers 1671

In April 2013, gold collapsed $300/ toz from $1600 to $1300 in a single week, but 90% of the drop happened in 2 days. Prices paused in June and settled into a range ca $1250 for the next 6 years.

China bought that break in April 2013 with such ferocity that dealers literally drained the COMEX of every available ounce in New York. All of those 100-ounce bars were melted into kilos and taels and shipped out to Hong Kong and Shanghai. I would wager that some of that gold found its way to London one way or another in time… and is now winging its way back home to the Comex like one of Julius Reuter’s pigeons.

Fast forward 12 years …

On December 9, 2024 the gold EFP traded at $8.00, and February gold settled at $2,671. By Wednesday evening, December 11, February gold had rallied $100, and the February EFP traded at $44.00. Gold and silver rallied so quickly a lot of traders thought the market was starting a new leg higher. But gold lost all it gains by th e close on Monday December 15, and few days later was trading $150 dollars at $2621. What tf happened?

I’m just going to write about gold tonight. We’ll catch up on the rest of the markets in the morning.