Evening wrap

market vibes

February 12…)

“Do hard things.” Jared Dillian

S&Ps (chart below in 1-minute data) ripped lower on the 0.5% hawkish CPI print, but only 1%, not 2% as forecast by pundits. The duration of 90% of the plunge was ≤ 20 milliseconds, so it seems likely the buyers were ready.

After a few minutes of light volume, stocks rallied for the rest of the session, led by the Nasdaq 100, which actually traded up on the day by a few basis points later in the afternoon. Despite a “set-up” by the commentariat for a hard break (0.5% seemed leaky if you ask me) … trading during regular hours was typically dull, bell to bell.

I don’t think the buyers were focused on rallying to new highs because NDX futures were within 0.20 points for over an hour, and they fizzled. It was rather to crush vols, where the real money is being made. Today’s 2% call by JPM will be met I think, however, but they will be wrong on timing and magnitude. Imo.

Volume was imperceptibly higher today, with most of the increase before 9:30.

Bonds

Bonds fell more than a big handle in milliseconds and stayed on the lows all day. Powell said “no cuts” yesterday. JPM said +0.5% in their forecast this morning. The council had spoken.

Meanwhile, Trump and company are curing the bond market with a chainsaw. Sorry, Chuck, no anesthetic for you, sir.

Up next gold, silver and platinum. Oil had an interesting day, possibly definitive, and certainly declarative. I covered the cracks and curves tonight. And of course a few aphorisms in the vibe…