evening wrap

market vibes

January 16…)

“Tempus fugit or fugit irreparabile tempus.” From the Roman poet Virgil, 29 BC. "It escapes, irretrievable time".

Gold rallied $90 in 3 sessions this week as banks forced their trading desks to liquidate another round of EFPs. Other banks with adequate balance sold into the EFP rallies, capturing an annualized 30+% return for 11 days. Those sellers are melting and recasting 400 toz London bars into 100 toz Comex good delivery bars and shipping to NY for delivery on Jan 31 (February 1st notics day).

Does it matter why prices are up? It does not in the moment, but it is good to know that $30 of the $90 rally won’t be there on February 1.

The March silver EFP traded up from .30 to 1.00, according to sources However, there’s no growth in Comex futures, so silver may be a lesser iteration of gold. The 1st notice day for March silver is February 28.

So whateverhappens in gold at month-end won’t be immediately relevant for silver. As you can see, OI is not moving, and volume in silver is very light. Usually, that means marginal flows are very small. Four weeks is a long time this year.

Crude oil, Natty (very cold weather next week), Bitcoin, fixed income, stocks and a few lines in the vibe up next: