JJ: lock and load, baby. This evening's price action reminds me of the wild overnight markets when it looked like Trump was going to beat Hillary in the November 2016 election. The Dow was off ~1,000 at one point. Trump's speech today about how the USA was done with "footing the bill" reminded me that in the 1990s, when crude traded between $20 and $40, I wondered what the "true" cost of oil was, once you factored in the cost of the US military protecting the trade routes.
How about this for a thought, in a week, we won't even remember tariffs because Trump will have done so many new things they will fall from the headlines
Thanks for this. Any thoughts on the implications of the administration’s decision to exempt gold from the tariffs? Do we see a flood straight back to London? And if so, does that have any knock-on ramifications?
Tariffs created an arb that paid the participants to endure the complexities and risks involved in moving billions of dollars of gold from all points of theworld to NY in December, january and february. I saw April deliveries were very high at 34,865, 000 mm toz. Very costly, movinr that much around.
Standards and provenance between Comex and LBMA are reciprocal but it would take a similar market event to justify shipping it back. For now the bars will stay here, in my opinion.
In April 2013 gold prices fell $400/ toz in a month and the chinese bought every ounce in sight ... at the time 400 oz bars and 100 toz bars had to be melted and recast into kilos and taels. So that was very like the 400 toz LBMA bars vs 1oo toz comex this time. But all that gold went to asia.
That was 10 years ago. It is posssible some of that gold that was shipped to Asia in 2013 has found its way back to NY! Money... goes where its well treated.
It does seem like an awful lot of trouble to move it back. Shame we won’t get a caveated GDP boost from the export, but I’m glad it’s here. Beats being elsewhere.
JJ: lock and load, baby. This evening's price action reminds me of the wild overnight markets when it looked like Trump was going to beat Hillary in the November 2016 election. The Dow was off ~1,000 at one point. Trump's speech today about how the USA was done with "footing the bill" reminded me that in the 1990s, when crude traded between $20 and $40, I wondered what the "true" cost of oil was, once you factored in the cost of the US military protecting the trade routes.
good point Victor... well we'll have to start charging for it. I have no clue where the markets will be tomorrow morning. I miss the pits!
How about this for a thought, in a week, we won't even remember tariffs because Trump will have done so many new things they will fall from the headlines
true that my friend
Thanks for this. Any thoughts on the implications of the administration’s decision to exempt gold from the tariffs? Do we see a flood straight back to London? And if so, does that have any knock-on ramifications?
And perhaps more to the point, should we read anything into the decision since markets were clearly concerned gold was going to be subject?
Tariffs created an arb that paid the participants to endure the complexities and risks involved in moving billions of dollars of gold from all points of theworld to NY in December, january and february. I saw April deliveries were very high at 34,865, 000 mm toz. Very costly, movinr that much around.
Standards and provenance between Comex and LBMA are reciprocal but it would take a similar market event to justify shipping it back. For now the bars will stay here, in my opinion.
In April 2013 gold prices fell $400/ toz in a month and the chinese bought every ounce in sight ... at the time 400 oz bars and 100 toz bars had to be melted and recast into kilos and taels. So that was very like the 400 toz LBMA bars vs 1oo toz comex this time. But all that gold went to asia.
That was 10 years ago. It is posssible some of that gold that was shipped to Asia in 2013 has found its way back to NY! Money... goes where its well treated.
It does seem like an awful lot of trouble to move it back. Shame we won’t get a caveated GDP boost from the export, but I’m glad it’s here. Beats being elsewhere.
Should gold be delivered in New York, rather than rolled, it’s going somewhere. No?
Volume, price action, and taking possession warrant extra attention going forward? That goes without saying?
Are you expecting anything out of the norm, or would it not surprise?
Great to have your perspective.
As always. TY.