evening wrap

market vibes

April 1… )

The saying, "March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb" is of unknown origin. The earliest known mention is in Thomas Fuller's 1732 compendium, “Gnomologia: Wise Sentences and Witty Sayings, Ancient and Modern.” And so it has been in 2025.

Another wise sentence foretelling the seasons for traders is, “Sell in may and go away,” originated in Londons financial district in 1776, referencing the St. Ledger’s Day horse race, and the summer habits of traders.

In the markets

Trading in the NY session was a day to lie down with the lambs. A quiet session in gold on declining volume. The trend remains unblemished, and there is no sign of deceleration yet, despite a lower close.

Dips in futures prices continue to attract responsive buying. (chart below hourly data)

A reader pointed out the reason for volatility in Comex gold open interest yesterday (encircled in the first chart above) was related to record high deliveries on Friday, March 28 of 34,865 lots (3,486,500 toz), surpassing the 2020 record of 32, 270 lots (3,270,000 toz.) The previous record in 2020 was related to a similar episode of EFP liquidation and location arbitrage.

I overlaid gold prices on the chart of Comex gold deliveries below, and I see no correlation between inventory movment and prices.

Next in the wrap: Stocks attempting to bottom, bonds attempting to break above a range top, oil may have been a one day wonder, bitcoin has found a price it likes. And… the vibe to follow… here we go!