evening wrap

market vibes

March 18…)

“I went to a fight last night and a hockey game broke out.” Rodney dangerfield

Muted tones and a dearth of fresh trading news made for another typically subdued session in new York on Tuesday. In a few words, gold made another record high and weak stocks went down again.

Bloomberg posted this headline this morning, “Gold Rush Seen in US as Macro Uncertainty Pushes Price to Record.” I totally disagree with the characterization there is a “gold rush.” In fact, gold really isn’t trading up at all. It just seems to exist day by day at sequentially record high prices like a storied ghost ship lost at sea, no crew, no captain… no passengers.

Comex April gold finished the post session on its ATH for a fourth day.

Copper has an identically vaucous tone and since nearly ALL available inventories of copper are in China, the behavior of copper is probably an echo of Chinese fundamentals.. and they own the LME. Therefore, since gold is walking like and quacking like a duck, it’s probably a duck. They were buying at precisely the same time last year if you recall.

Silver was higher, but silver traders have been trained to avoid the left-hand side of the blotter whenever an SLV expiration looms. The shares are trading in the bullseye of gamma right now as usual, and it is likely, as usual, the shorts will slam it on Friday morning.

If I didn’t know better, I’d say silver looks bullish. It always looks bullish the Tuesday before a Friday SLV expiration. (I am a passive long, so I am allowed to mock my own trades.)

Ok …that’s enough sarcasm. Let’s get into the stock market, a technical deep dive into a confirming reversal in crude and the dollar index on new lows… with a dubious look at a rate cut at 2 PM tomorrow in the vibe. Here we go.