evening wrap

market vibes

February 24… )

“The painter will produce works of little merit if he takes the works of other as his standard.” Leonardo da Vinci ca 1500

In political news today, Trump met with Macron. Another step towards peace, a bit like hop-scotch, but the end game is near, imo. Kash Patel hired Dan Bongino as the Deputy director of the FBI. Pam Bondi hired Matt Gaetz as a special prosecutor. This is not unlike hiring George S. Patton to run the J-6 investigation (and other misdeeds) and Wm. Tecumsh Sherman to prosecute it. Fighting men are not hired to play games.

In the markets

Stocks opened 30 higher, fell to 60 lower on the bell and snapped back on responsive buying as if the buyers were ready for it. Apart from that, Monday’s stock markets were typically dull and featureless with trading above and below unchanged on light volume for most of the day. NDX turned lower around 2:30 and the DOW which was anomalously strong for a changed wavered but held its gains.

The mood in stocks is not bearish yet but there are levels below the market if broken will swiftly turn tolerant patience into bullish selling. For instance a new low for the month in March S&Ps of 5935 and a new low for the year of 5809 (chart below). S&Ps closed below the November 6 high of 6030 again, threatening “the Trump trade” cohort and all longs entered above 6000. These monthly and yearly lows are important long time frame barriers because we are nearly 2 months into the year with 20% of all trading days behind us in the first week of March.

As always when ranges endure for long period the question must be asked are strong hands accumulating risk or distributing risk to weak hands?

next up more deep thinking about gold and silver, the GSR makes silver cheap, palladium took a hit and bitcoin.. plus a a few ruminations Comex inventories and the arbs in my vibe.