April 21…)
The Dow opened 200 lower and went straight down, spending the entire session <-1100, and managed a tepid rally into the close. The “Trump is bad” flavor of the day focused on the president’s mockery of Jay Powell for not cutting rates.
Personally, I think there’s a lot of script in the market looking for stable ownership, and that’s not going to resolve for a while. Stocks might get cheap enough to have a trading rally from 5000 S&P. It’s not the end of the world yet but I don’t expect mush of bounce above 5400.
The only outstanding earnings so far have been the banks crushing it, being short stocks all the way down. My guess is they’re structurally short, managing their Greeks, looking for daylight in the tariff negotiations. Everyone that got out well is staying out. Everyone with wood to chop is having a tough day. CTAs should be heavily short now and selling today. When they stop, we could see a rally.
An outlier bucking the trend in stocks recently is DJT, Trump’s media company, rallying late in the session to close up on the day. The green line is the 55 DMA.
Bonds up next, nothing to see here… a discussion on gold’s vertical form and what it may mean if it ever slows down, the GSR looks squeezy (anything can happen), other metals looking a reason to believe, oil on hold and bitcoin’s best day in weeks… Plus a lotto ticket in the vibe.
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