evening wrap
market vibes
November 12 … 2024)
Retail investors preparing to invest in bitcoin right now
BTC futures swooned briefly today but recovered nicely in the late after noon. No doubt OI will be at a new record on the close.
Copper, often a clarion for future economic health, closed on the lows.
The NYMEX WTI December January front spread another equally reliable indicator of economic demand, closed on the lows and at the lowest price in 3 years.
The booming Trump dollar rocked on like a prima donna at the Met. December Euro futures made new lows in all fractal samples today including monthly quarterly and yearly. The yen fell to new lows for the month and quarter and apart from a tepid rally in July and early August, the Yen is very comfortably under it lows for the 21st century.
Gold is down about 7% this month on very low positioning in futures and zero participation from the oligarchic masters of the Mags. The obvious thing about gold in monthly data to me is, the position at risk on the Comex is so small it doesn’t exit. Of course it will yield as the dollar goes higher but reluctantly. Gold has a very long memory.
In daily data, Dec gold held a held a wel formed 3 point T line today.
Another T line to watch in hourly silver dating back to Oct 30. And although it’s an outlier there is a beefy SLV expiration for the November 15 calls on Friday.
In other markets
Stocks did literally nothing today although the forecasts for another relentless rally are abundant and the market seems incapable of sustaining the shallowest of dips.
Bonds fell hard today (next chart) despite dovish inflation expectations from the NY Fed and consumers expecting the lowest possibility of jobloss in months and the highest expecations of finding a better one if they were fired. CPI tomorrow. No one cares.
my vibe,
Wheat prices traded down to $5.53/ bushel about where they were in 1980 when silver was trading $50. I wouldn’t be surprised to Gasoline at a dollar a gallon in the harbor this spring. And silver trading $50.
Good luck in Asia!
JJ
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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg
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