evening wrap

market vibes

April 22… )

“Now is no time to think of what you do not have. Think of what you can do with what there is.” Santiago - Hemmingway

A very mixed bag of trading in NY today, a so-so rally in stocks with the Dow up 1000, NDX +440, and S&Ps +130. Oil rallied; no news, just the industry doing its thing.

June Gold had a spectacular spill, copper was sharply higher, silver did utterly nothing. PM mining stocks took a hit, silver miners fell almost 5% although silver was unchanged. The dollar managed an uptick…and Bitcoin broke out. Let’s get started.

Gold prices are down $30 on the day as I write, but settled down $16 in the pit close. The range was extreme at $130 high to low (nearly 4% of price), and volume was the highest non-roll volume since April 12, 2024. There is a well-formed outside reversal in the day structure, but trading and volume were evenly distributed through the session from 2 AM EDT to the close. Certainly no panic or fire sale activity.

Someone had a lot of gold to sell today, beginning in London, that carried into the Comex, and the market took it rather well, imo. How much? My guesstimate would be 2 million+ toz, 20k Comex lots (but I really have no clue). Open interest should shed some light tomorrow.

There is still a formidable $200 void in weekly and monthly data (daily data chart below). I would say today’s action is the first sign of horizontal activity in a $500 vertical upward burst. Selling today was absent any news or narratives. Profit-taking, I think, on an impressive scale.

COT spec length was the lowest in a year as of last Friday’s report, basis Tuesday April 15 data.

The dollar was higher vs. the Yen and the Euro. FX and gold were equally well-maintained and orderly and trading in sync. DXY daily data chart below.

If the dollar rallies, metals will adjust. How much, we’ll have to see. Gold has been indifferent to “correlated” markets for 2 years so, maybe not. As long as these tariff negotiations are unresolved, I doubt the dollar is going far.

WTI rallied again on light volume and finished up a dollar +/-… Front spreads were tight. Back spreads priced up a bit but still leaning soft. This little resistance area I’ve been posting for a while has held the rally in check for a couple of days. The bottom of the old range for June WTI is $65/barrel. There is still a very wide void above $65.

No news… API reported US crude inventories fell 4.57M bbl last week via BBG. Cushing: -354K, Gasoline: -2.18M, Distillate: -1.64M.

Thousand-point ranges are getting to be ordinary these days, small compared to the 5000-point days earlier this month. We’re going to miss them. For now, the ranges are narrowing every day, and the Dow’s POC should begin to emerge somewhere in this 38k to 41k area.

Here’s the S&P in daily data. Considering yesterday’s lows generated a solid-ish rally back into the upper middle of the range, longs want continued development higher. Sideways at least… Development under yesterday’s low would be negative. A brief print and strong responsive buying under 5100 is ok. But you do not want prices settling under 5100 now, if you’re long.

Well done, bitcoin. Not only has bitcoin sustained a well-formed technical bottom, it has liquidated 38% of its futures OI and, at least for the time being, the coin is showing some risk-on leadership (exclusive of gold, which is in another dimension of reality). The chart does look promising.

In other markets, Tesla had a bad miss (EPS 27C vs. est 43C and rev 19 bill vs. est 21 bill), but I had to wipe my eyes when I checked the market! The stock was $10 higher from settlement (I own it, have owned it, and suffered and rejoiced with it, so I guess this is a little loyalty dividend?) “I am sure some smart analyst will tell us why tomorrow.”

my vibe

I can feel the rips decelerating, the twaps returning, the vols exhaling… I won’t say “all clear” because there are still a lot of balls up in the air. But deals appear to be progressing, Rubio is shuttering 100-plus offices in the State Department, DOGE rolls on, taxes get paid. The earth turns.

I chose a quote from The Old Man and the Sea this evening to impart a bit of humility that may have been tossed overboard (by me) with the flotsam and jetsam of recent weeks. And count my blessings. I caught some fish. I hope you did, too!

Schmidt on AI tonight

cow love!

Night all…Good luck in Asia.

JJ

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

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