evening wrap
market vibes
March 31…)
It is one of the superstitions of the human mind to have imagined that virginity could be a virtue. Voltaire
A French court found Marine Le Pen guilty of embezzling €3 million between 2004 and 2016 today. Her political career is effectively over due to a 5-year ban precluding all political activity, effective immediately. She may spend two years under house arrest with an electronic bracelet if she loses her appeals, according to reports. However, the punitive sentence won’t take effect until her appeals process is exhausted, which could take years.
Ms. Le Pen was the most popular politician in France according to Le Figaro Magazine in 2024. An IFOP poll published by Journal du Dimanche over the weekend showed Le Pen leading Macron by 12 points.
In the markets
Gold posted another new all-time high early in the pre-NY session and again after Comex opened. A brief drop of $30 dollars around 10 AM EDT was met with aggressive responsive buying. Prices recovered within minutes and held at the all time highs in a narrow range for the rest of the day.
The trend is solidly in force with considerable technical authority. Apart from subdued quarter-end volume, prices are accelerating up. A surge of 35k OI cob Friday is already circa $50 in credit. Every short sale since the Bretton Woods agreement … is in variation debt tonight.
Stocks posted encouraging technical reversals across all three indexes today; the Dow in the lead, NDX lagging as usual. S&Ps (chart below) opened lower, traded down for 10 minutes, and then buyers dominated the session for the rest of the day. There’s a good chance the lows are in for the time being despite a stack of uncertainties.
The Dow’s leadership seems to be a consensus expression of defensive Trump-era investing, NDX’s disfavor, the old regime being repriced. Still, the future doesn’t look any worse than usual. If stocks could go sideways for a quarter, no biggie. I don’t plan on chasing anything higher.
Next up…Oil caught wrong footed in a rip, bonds looking better every day, bitcoin just can’t get it up … a mixed pot-pouri of thoughts on the board, including platinum and a go US in the vibe. here we go!
