evening wrap

market vibes

April 16…)

“When you get to the end of your rope tie a knot and hang on.” FDR’s inauguration, March 4, 1933

Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago at lunchtime, and his comments were surprisingly negative. Certainly nothing friendly for stocks.

On the lows, when he finished his remarks, S&Ps were down -175, and the Dow was a few ticks from down -1000. A healthy bounce into close recovered 400 Dow points and 60 S&P handles. Volume relative to the range was very thin.

I think for now the outside lows (noted chart below) are going to hold 5000 in the absence of something shocking. Powell’s unkind words were odd, not shocking. He could easily have said something soothing but he didn’t. He brought his hammer, and he hammered.

It’s a range and the top of it at 5528.00 on April 10 looks formidable. I think prices will oscillate around tonight’s settlement at 5300 +/- and form a POC. Margin selling is done. The Mags are crushed, tariffs are settling into the trenches. Vol compression… fresh news either way will take time.

Bonds rallied again on light volume and very low OI. The 20-year auction went well.

A wider discussion on oil and gold both comitted to opposing trends is next… and silver with record short interest in SLV… and the dollar accelerating lower. And of course the vibe to put a bow on it… "Omnes viae ducunt ad aurum" …