EF WHO

market vibes

April 10…)

Data this morning portentous of a steady if unexciting economy, imo. Your move Jay.

In the news

Goldman cut its China GDP growth forecast to 3.5 from 4%. (reuters) The CCP called an emergency ad hoc meeting to discuss stimulus weakening the Yuan and other measures to offset tariffs (The Standard HK).

I heard an anecdote on one of the biz shows yesterday that 300 Chinese container ships arrive in the US from various global ports of embarkation every day. That implies untold thousands of Chinese ships at sea in loops to and from Chinese exporters , offloading, returning ad infinitum. I can’t imagine that can go on for long with 100%+ tariffs.

Citi, CNBC and others advise caution buying this rally in stocks. I tend to agree.

The House passed a bill restricting Judges to their districts. Now it goes to the Senate where is it expected to pass. A sea change from Trump in the courts.

EF Hutton is coming back. Years ago, I saw a tony stretch black limo outside #4 WTC (the exchanges) with a license plate that said, "EF WHO."

In the markets this morning

A quiet session of profit-taking overnight in stock indexes. Technically, the picture is murky. S&P OI fell on moderate volume, reinforcing the short covering narrative.

I think anything above yesterday's high on a bullish CPI print, for instance, will meet stiff resistance. And it's likely we'll see an inside day notwithstanding a white flag from Beijing.

Long bonds made it back to the bottom of the range yesterday, leaving a long tail and isolated low on falling OI, indicating short covering. Kudlow said Bessent called around to some "friendlies and others on the China/US fence," advising them if they bought the auction yesterday, they would be happy. Lol. “When Scott speaks, people listen.”

(Tens chart below) The auction was announced at 1:04 PM, and the pause was announced at 1:19 PM.

(30s chart below) Later in the evening, I saw some blogs saying the sellers of Ts on Tuesday were Japanese. I so totally doubt that since the Japanese were 1st out of the gate to book the Oval to make a deal, and trashing Ts would eviscerate their citizens' portfolios. Liar birds.

Next up gold < 2% from an all time high, Oil settling down circa $60, and mixed signals in Bitcoin. here we go.