earthly gravity
market vibes
March 5…)
In the news
Challenger job cuts came in sharply lower this morning at 48k vs 108k in January and 172k last year. This is a pro-growth number. ADP came in stronger this week as well at +63k vs 48k expected. NFP is expected between 50k and 70k tomorrow vs an outlier of +130k last month.
Pundits think the US Clarity Act aimed at expanding access to stablecoins and digital assets could be close to passage or signing. Quoting Grok: “Strong Institutional Inflows via Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Continued net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs provided structural buying support. Reports highlighted hundreds of millions in recent daily/weekly inflows (e.g., ~$458M one day, $225M another, totaling billions over sessions), reflecting institutional accumulation even in turbulent times.”
War updtes
The Iranian death toll is at least 1,230 (includes 175 schoolgirls & staff from an early strike; source: Iranian Red Crescent/Tasnim). Thousands wounded (one report: 6,000). US KIAs remain at 6. Israel -13, UAE -3. Iranian attacks intensified overnight but most were intercepted. No further fatalities reported.
Apparently the Iranian Navy has ceased to exist, except small craft in the Strait and a few subs. Pundits on X opined yesterday Iranian desalinated fresh water is more precious than oil. Putin intimated according to translations, he is considering ending all shipments of energy to Europe and focusing on “reliable partners.””
In the markets
We have a promising 3 day up wiggle forming in May silver. An aggressive trader may want to take a place marker position in anticipation of confirmation on the close… knowing full well it is still very early in the session and if prices make new lows today will be a vanilla down day. Since most of you are just getting acquainted with the form I suggest you watch it develop.
Platinum and copper are doing nothing, a little soft.
I see nothing in gold. Maybe $5000, maybe not. Hodl.
The technical picture in WTI is mixed to decelerating. Open interest is falling meaning money is cashing out. Volumes are decelerating and prices are higher but urgency is muted.
