Drones over New Jersey
market vibes
February 19…)
In the news
Jan housing starts at 8:30, Fed Minutes at 2 PM EST.
In finance: The UK’s headline CPI came in hot, at 3% versus a forecast of 2.8%, but the services reading was a touch lower than expected. Citi’s CEO got a pay bump of 33% to $34 million. Schnabel said on BBG “euro-cuts are coming to an end… risks to inflation are skewed to the upside.”
Cost to borrow GLD spikes to 10.45% likely APs raiding it for more bars/redemptions. British Proff visits BOE gold vault in Z hedge clip from 2012 (tedious but informative eye candy). Social media, X, Google News, BBG, Reuters, even Glen Beck… are littered with gold noise from every angle. This may not be the top but it’s definitely not the bottom.
In politics: Trump called Biden, “a loser” yesterday says Zelensky’s approval rating is 4%. Zelensky says trump lives in a “disinformation space” but he respects him. Elon Musk says he and the President Trump will be discussing a “DOGE dividend,” which will be a tax refund sent to every taxpayer. Palantir CEO Alex Karp a liberal weighed in on Sqwak Box yesterday (worth a listen). AFD coming on strong pre elections… DOGE is contagious…
In the markets
WTI is still trading up on light volume and news that OPEC production increases may be pushed back to later in H2. In my opinion, when production stays unchanged for two years the level becomes a new baseline and cuts lose any relevance. “Relaxing cuts” as the JMMC likes to say, is simply a fig leaf for hikes which like FOMC and BOE rate cuts, are probably not going to happen this year.
Meanwhile non OPEC suppy is expected to exceed demand growth by 1 to 1.5 mmbpd in 2025 mostly from the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, according to EIA and IEA.
April WTI daily data
FYG, 3/2/1 cracks are falling as crude rallies (daily data).
Up next gold, silver, the S&P and its usual malaise, bitcoin, and bonds. Then some common sense vibes on Fort Konx, Treasuries, and oil… here we go!
