If its true that prices tell the real story - right now this story is grim. Half of the portfolio is stable and the other half deep red. Most of it PM related.
I think it's fair to say that every mainstream narrative is a lie, whether it be in medicine, finance, politics or war. Most narratives are formed or driven with a very incomplete set of facts and faulty opinions formed as a result. Our 'rulers' feed us just the right facts to form the 'right' opinions. 0.1% benefit from the lies, 10% notice the lies and the other 90% get on with their lives and assume that those in charge are doing (mostly) the right thing. Fortunately since 2019 the number of people noticing the lies is increasing.
The three big IPOs coming up, the rule changes for NDX listings and encouragement for the public to invest in PE all suggest to me that the 0.1% are going to offload their wealth at the top. Leaving the pension funds and savings plans of Joe public to ride the market down. If they have to lie to achieve their goal they will. And everyone will cheer on the market to the top because we like it that way.
JJ: In the 80s the NFP report was the "grandaddy" of all economic data, and people believed the report. Today, not so much. I don't fault the people who try to count who's working. I don't blame them for the back month revisions. How accurate can you be trying to count a herd of 300+ million people on the move. In Canada this am the report was 88,000 new jobs in May against expectations of +10,000. Your 2nd take on how all jobs are not the same was brilliant, obvious maybe, but we needed a reminder. I saw Tim Hardin a few times in the 70s. He played at a small club in Vancouver and every woman in the room was in love with him.
Canada created 88,000 new jobs in May? Yeah, and I’m on track to win the American League batting title. Where are these jobs? In the Liberal propaganda department? The Liberal censorship division? A week ago - we learned that Canada has experienced negative GDP growth for 2 consecutive quarters. The Carney Liberal subsidized media have been doing cartwheels to gaslight Canadians that it’s a “technical recession”, and it’s all Trump’s fault. Food bank usage and homelessness are the only growth industries in Canada, besides our natural resources sector.
Mike: Thanks for your comment. I should have been more clear: I should have said that Stats Can came up with a headcount that was so far away from expectations that it was useless info, as Stats Canada data has been for years. But, to be fair, how can they, or their American cousins have any chance of getting the headcount right? The employment report used to be important, and people traded on it, but not any more.
StatCan "lie" ? lol. i don't believe it. i put it down to outright incompetence... .. 3 of the last 4 quarters in Canada have been negative. 1 year GDP growth of .. zero? and they magically show +88k new jobs. lol. magically wiping out the job losses for the year?
Ai is coming after every skilled workers job . It doesn't have the ability to hold back what it knows it can do. To that end we are in uncharted water.
Your daughter's situations remind me of one of my favorite quotes " For where the determination is, a way is found".
A lot of boomers are retiring. There is a shortage of qualified accountants, especially tax related. AI is a godsend for accountants needing answers to complicated tax situations. It's still evolving, but in a year or two should make life more tolerable for stressed out, overworked CPA's. The tax code is a nightmare regarding partnerships, S corps, dying, selling, exchanging, etc.
Hi Petra these are vol bets as much at lotto tix. If gold traded $8k in a month ( August 1) the $10k gamma would be an unhedgeable nightmare. If ever the $10ks approached ITM ... every $1000 is a billion so not ourtageos VAR and by then the deltas would be .75 or higher so it's just a million toz.
These are big boy bets at the big boy table, bar money after a good good round of golf. Not for us!
Back in the day we were forbidden to write long dated 10 deltas ot lower. We had a guy in London who did it in LME copper and he was either off the desk drinking or in therapy... we called him "the reaper".
But You are aging as one of the most important “Ancient Sages” of this epoch… while I just try to keep on surfing as long as i can paddle out and snag a wave and to remember my grandkids names and their favourite things to do.
Your analysis and its “Last Honest Man” dissection keeps shining through the murky/manipulated “data” in ways that are irreplaceable.
I´ve seen MoodyP as a commentor frequently, not sure on this sub. Rudy just quoted him in his latest musing with this:
"FWIW on oil. I’m on the Board and the 2nd largest SH of a 40 year old, closely held oil and gas royalty firm, w/mineral rights on a couple hundred acres in Northern MI. 4 oil rigs, 7 gas rigs currently operating, 3 oil rigs, 3 gas wells mothballed. 1.2-1.5 million in revenue per year. 12-30% historical dividend over 40 years.
Baywood, Inc.
We have two producers. We get a monthly report on production, revenue, demand, etc.
Since the start of the Iran war they have seen (1) no increase in demand (2) not enough increase in revenue to reactivate the mothballed rigs (3) no sign of any looming ‘shortage (4) no action by the state to lift current enviro regs that limit run time to 12 hours per day (5) no action by their corporate parent to request waivers to allow longer run times.
Our First quarter revenue was up 11% over Q1 2025, a far cry from the near doubling of prices at the pump. Production was flat, oil rigs run around 75% capacity.
Just sayin…
Oh and lastly. And this is true for the dozens (actually a couple hundred) of the small producers in Northern MI. Oil production could more than double, almost overnight with minimal increase in marginal cost. Rigs can only operate 12 hours per day based on state law. Ramp and shut down takes 90 minutes out of the 12 hours, so actual production is 10-10.5 hrs. If the restrictions were lifted then 13-14 hours of production would be added to each 24 hour period. And if the demand and price point were reflective of the narrative (looking at you Art Berman) the mothballed rigs could be brought online within 30 days. Essentially, we could more than triple what we are currently producing on the oil side. Our SH would love it.
On the nat gas side the glut is so big and prices are so low it’s barely a break even proposition.
Most of the oil goes to Canada for refining, although it sometimes gets routed elsewhere. The Nat Gas mostly ends up in Texas.
Over the 40 years of being involved in this, literally hundreds of small producers in MI and throughout the Midwest have gone out of business. As a small producer it’s hard to make money. The regulations are stifling and the prices refiners are willing to pay have not kept up with production costs. Not even close.
Somebody along the line is making a lot of money. I can say with 100% confidence, it’s not the small operation or producers. Our annual meeting is coming up. Our SH are likely to be unhappy, given the price at the pump and the current narrative.
Hmm. Maybe we could have Berman as a guest speaker."
Solid analysis as always. Sorry to hear about the job difficulties for your daughters. So hard for parents.
Construction trades are still high in demand. Great opportunity for folks that really want/need to work…
If its true that prices tell the real story - right now this story is grim. Half of the portfolio is stable and the other half deep red. Most of it PM related.
Never enough when you're right never too few when you're wrong...
ain't that the truth
I think it's fair to say that every mainstream narrative is a lie, whether it be in medicine, finance, politics or war. Most narratives are formed or driven with a very incomplete set of facts and faulty opinions formed as a result. Our 'rulers' feed us just the right facts to form the 'right' opinions. 0.1% benefit from the lies, 10% notice the lies and the other 90% get on with their lives and assume that those in charge are doing (mostly) the right thing. Fortunately since 2019 the number of people noticing the lies is increasing.
The three big IPOs coming up, the rule changes for NDX listings and encouragement for the public to invest in PE all suggest to me that the 0.1% are going to offload their wealth at the top. Leaving the pension funds and savings plans of Joe public to ride the market down. If they have to lie to achieve their goal they will. And everyone will cheer on the market to the top because we like it that way.
They may already have…
JJ: In the 80s the NFP report was the "grandaddy" of all economic data, and people believed the report. Today, not so much. I don't fault the people who try to count who's working. I don't blame them for the back month revisions. How accurate can you be trying to count a herd of 300+ million people on the move. In Canada this am the report was 88,000 new jobs in May against expectations of +10,000. Your 2nd take on how all jobs are not the same was brilliant, obvious maybe, but we needed a reminder. I saw Tim Hardin a few times in the 70s. He played at a small club in Vancouver and every woman in the room was in love with him.
Canada created 88,000 new jobs in May? Yeah, and I’m on track to win the American League batting title. Where are these jobs? In the Liberal propaganda department? The Liberal censorship division? A week ago - we learned that Canada has experienced negative GDP growth for 2 consecutive quarters. The Carney Liberal subsidized media have been doing cartwheels to gaslight Canadians that it’s a “technical recession”, and it’s all Trump’s fault. Food bank usage and homelessness are the only growth industries in Canada, besides our natural resources sector.
Mike: Thanks for your comment. I should have been more clear: I should have said that Stats Can came up with a headcount that was so far away from expectations that it was useless info, as Stats Canada data has been for years. But, to be fair, how can they, or their American cousins have any chance of getting the headcount right? The employment report used to be important, and people traded on it, but not any more.
StatCan "lie" ? lol. i don't believe it. i put it down to outright incompetence... .. 3 of the last 4 quarters in Canada have been negative. 1 year GDP growth of .. zero? and they magically show +88k new jobs. lol. magically wiping out the job losses for the year?
Ai is coming after every skilled workers job . It doesn't have the ability to hold back what it knows it can do. To that end we are in uncharted water.
Your daughter's situations remind me of one of my favorite quotes " For where the determination is, a way is found".
A lot of boomers are retiring. There is a shortage of qualified accountants, especially tax related. AI is a godsend for accountants needing answers to complicated tax situations. It's still evolving, but in a year or two should make life more tolerable for stressed out, overworked CPA's. The tax code is a nightmare regarding partnerships, S corps, dying, selling, exchanging, etc.
JJ, may I ask for your take (or anyone else´s) on these seemingly weird calls?
December 2026. Deep out-of-the-money COMEX gold calls.
$10,000/oz — 1.1M oz in open contracts
$15,000/oz — 2.4M oz in open contracts
$20,000/oz — 2.65M oz in open contracts
Hi Petra these are vol bets as much at lotto tix. If gold traded $8k in a month ( August 1) the $10k gamma would be an unhedgeable nightmare. If ever the $10ks approached ITM ... every $1000 is a billion so not ourtageos VAR and by then the deltas would be .75 or higher so it's just a million toz.
These are big boy bets at the big boy table, bar money after a good good round of golf. Not for us!
Back in the day we were forbidden to write long dated 10 deltas ot lower. We had a guy in London who did it in LME copper and he was either off the desk drinking or in therapy... we called him "the reaper".
JJ.
I think we are, sort of the same age.
But You are aging as one of the most important “Ancient Sages” of this epoch… while I just try to keep on surfing as long as i can paddle out and snag a wave and to remember my grandkids names and their favourite things to do.
Your analysis and its “Last Honest Man” dissection keeps shining through the murky/manipulated “data” in ways that are irreplaceable.
Thank You for Everything.
& Have a Killer Weekend.
Brian
I agree with the assessment but the question has to be asked and answered. Why? Why are these narratives being pushed? What is the goal?
The second question to that is always: Why now?
My all time favorite Far Side cartoon 💖
I´ve seen MoodyP as a commentor frequently, not sure on this sub. Rudy just quoted him in his latest musing with this:
"FWIW on oil. I’m on the Board and the 2nd largest SH of a 40 year old, closely held oil and gas royalty firm, w/mineral rights on a couple hundred acres in Northern MI. 4 oil rigs, 7 gas rigs currently operating, 3 oil rigs, 3 gas wells mothballed. 1.2-1.5 million in revenue per year. 12-30% historical dividend over 40 years.
Baywood, Inc.
We have two producers. We get a monthly report on production, revenue, demand, etc.
Since the start of the Iran war they have seen (1) no increase in demand (2) not enough increase in revenue to reactivate the mothballed rigs (3) no sign of any looming ‘shortage (4) no action by the state to lift current enviro regs that limit run time to 12 hours per day (5) no action by their corporate parent to request waivers to allow longer run times.
Our First quarter revenue was up 11% over Q1 2025, a far cry from the near doubling of prices at the pump. Production was flat, oil rigs run around 75% capacity.
Just sayin…
Oh and lastly. And this is true for the dozens (actually a couple hundred) of the small producers in Northern MI. Oil production could more than double, almost overnight with minimal increase in marginal cost. Rigs can only operate 12 hours per day based on state law. Ramp and shut down takes 90 minutes out of the 12 hours, so actual production is 10-10.5 hrs. If the restrictions were lifted then 13-14 hours of production would be added to each 24 hour period. And if the demand and price point were reflective of the narrative (looking at you Art Berman) the mothballed rigs could be brought online within 30 days. Essentially, we could more than triple what we are currently producing on the oil side. Our SH would love it.
On the nat gas side the glut is so big and prices are so low it’s barely a break even proposition.
Most of the oil goes to Canada for refining, although it sometimes gets routed elsewhere. The Nat Gas mostly ends up in Texas.
Over the 40 years of being involved in this, literally hundreds of small producers in MI and throughout the Midwest have gone out of business. As a small producer it’s hard to make money. The regulations are stifling and the prices refiners are willing to pay have not kept up with production costs. Not even close.
Somebody along the line is making a lot of money. I can say with 100% confidence, it’s not the small operation or producers. Our annual meeting is coming up. Our SH are likely to be unhappy, given the price at the pump and the current narrative.
Hmm. Maybe we could have Berman as a guest speaker."
Vaccines were not safe ?
Surprise, isn´t it ?
Fud thru me for a sec.