double wiggles ... and silver
market vibes
in the news
Bertha is rising in the Gulf but won’t reach enogh force to shut in refineries. If a storm does get through “the goal posts” this summer, shutting refineries would amplify the shortage of gas and distillates and increase the supply of crude as refineries stop running it. Cracks would explode.
This chart crafted by BAC includes SPR withdrawls…. and does not differentiate between Biden SPR sales (45 days of supply 2022) and Bessent SPR loans (43 days of supply 2026). If one were to add SPR loans repaid (beginning in Nov 2026), total days of supply would be in the 80 day range today.
Facts: Commercial days-of-supply has averaged in the mid-20s to low-30s range since Y2K. Recent EIA data shows levels around 23-25 days. BAC… forecast 3 hikes just before CPI and PPI were reported at 2.6% in July.
Chinese copper inventories (from Goldman’s recent note) via Robert Freidland on X. If US equities can get out of this funk… copper is well positioned to go with them.
Via Nick Timiraos WSJ: “Forecasters who transpose the PPI and CPI into the PCE expect a mild core reading for June at +0.18% (+3.3% y/y) on July 30, which would be the lowest monthly print since Nov. 2025.”
The FOMC meets on July 28 and July 29.
in other news
The pentagon admits almost 100 US troops injured, 3 killed. ADP weekly employment came in a little soft at 16.5k vs 19k expected. And… Boston is on a 14 game streak, the best since Cleveland’s 22 game run in 2017.
in the markets
Silver is turning higher from extremely oversold territory. Above $63.75 things get interesting. Open interest was down slightly yesterday. Rising OI with rising prices would be positive development. If it’s a real rally, it’s very early.
Platinum, same idea but far less fashionable.
