disinflation

market vibes

June 2…)

in the news

X posts are turning bearish on crude oil. “Oversupplied by 2027!”

BBG June 1: Unless the peace talks between Washington and Tehran fall apart and Hormuz remains closed beyond July, LNG prices are set to drop again — and remain low for an extended period.

“Having witnessed the closure of Hormuz, no sane policymaker in Asia is likely to consider the waterway safe again.” Javier Blas

Russia… energy hegemony.

Chinese crude imports are down 5 mm bpd since April 1.

Confirmed by Axios and multiple outlets including Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post: “You are just crazy…. If it weren’t for me, you would be in prison. I’ve been protecting your ass for a long time. Now everyone hates you. Because of you, everyone hates Israel.” Excerpt from the Trump–Netanyahu phone call June 1, 2026.

deflation

in the markets

A lots of charts again… bonds and precious metals moving together. Oil futures are steady, gasoline teetering. Bitcoin in trouble…

Thirty-year Treasuries are beginning to recover. Liquidation of foreign holdings during the war and what I think was risk-on short selling pressured the market to an extreme discount to fair value.