denial

market vibes

November 13 …) 

“Denial ain’t just a river in Edypt.” Twain

In the news 

The U.S. is pumping more oil than ever before and significantly more than Saudi Arabia ... the gap between both countries is more than 4 million barrels per day. ⁦via Liz Ann Sonders 

Oil prices seem to have discounted this shift and as the US readies to drill more oil on and offshore prices are clinging to long term lows. I’ve indicated two previous ranges in the chart below where oil transacted comfortably for about 5 years and a possible return to the sub-$50 pre-covid zone from 2025 to 2028. The post GFC $100 zone seems improbable. But prices could stay here or rally to $100/ barrel if some unforeseen events radically change the next few months. If not, it’s getting down to simple arithmetic, imo,as I will get into in my vibe .  

In other markets all is calm at post-election levels. CPI today is expected benign but the machines won’t activate until 8:30.

 I won’t post any charts this morning because nothing has changed since 4 PM on Tuesday. Silver OI went up a few hundred, gold OI is down 50,000 (9%) lots in November. COMEX copper OI is down 20k (9%) in 5 sessions. Palladium OI is down 50% since August 6 (an auspicious date). Platinum is down 10% in November.

The Euro is still in freefall. The Yen is on its heels. Bonds and bitcoin are glued to the lows and highs respectively. Stocks are in their typical rigor mortis at the highs. 

I have to say I’ve read some sell side research in the last few days using hyperbolic language trying avoid the dense necrosis smothering equities. There is some screaming going on in bonds and bitcoin, maybe some yelping in gold but stocks act like the living dead except when the machines are turned on. Then they rally like Frankenstein in iron boots. Sorry. It is what it is. Does it matter to longs if prices go up? It does not.  

my rather long vibe today