declarations
market vibes
May 1…)
“A sentence is a complete thought.” Aristotle
In the news
European stock markets are closed for Labor Day but London is open. The English May Day will be on May 5 in 2025. A fun fact: The international distress signal "mayday" comes from the French phrase "m'aider," meaning "help me". Originally used in the early days of aviation by pilots and ground staff in emergencies.
Bessent: The two-year treasury says the Fed should cut.
Trump: GDP data was a one time tariff event.
Musk: DOGE should definitely examine the Fed.
In the markets
Since it is May 1, let’s listen to some markets in longer time frames beginning with WTI. Readers of market vibes have been listening to the oil market speaking for nearly a year when I first published this very same chart of WTI in roll adjusted weekly data last summer (several times). On April 6, 2025 I updated a note titled “sic semper gloria mundi”. If you misssed it, click the link and you’ll see a detailed discussion of the wedge thesis in the “oil” section.
Oil has been saying, “I am weakening and going down and I have strong support ca $62 per barrel but….”
Oil’s declaration has been unfinished for 2 years. On April 2 the market added one word, “imminently” as prices violated long-time frame support on extreme volume. OPEC consistently stabilized prices at $62/barrel in two ways: transparently limited production and open market intervention.
Yesterday, KSA’s formal withdrawal of “stability” punctuated a declarative statement long on the lips of the market. This morning, the market is beginning a new complete thought: “I am unstable and …” To be continued. So, we go to other markets looking for similar declarations.
We don’t need to go far! Gold is speaking, stocks are whispering, and bitcoin’s ephemeral shape-shifting…and the vibe up next:
