clairvoyance and reality
market vibes
Friday, September 26…)
“Cynicism, to me, is trying to make people as unhappy as you are.” Ricky Gervais
Data at 8:30 … includes personal spending, PCE index MOM due .3% vs .2% last, YOY due 2.8% vs 2.6% last, and core PCE YOY due 3% vs 2.9% last. U Mich sentiment, current conditions, and inflation expectations all due unchanged or higher at 10:00. Any of these data could be market sensitive, probably bullish with algos set for a green validation after GDP, strong consumer spending, and durable goods yesterday.
In the news
Comey goes to court; no doubt others to follow. Some say Comey is a stepping stone. The big names are slated to hit as the mid terms approach. The shut down gets a shrug from markets.
On September 24, 2025, the ECB published an analytical review titled “Stay calm and keep cash at home. ”The Central Bank wrote, “Cash (banknotes) acts as a ‘spare tire’ in crises: demand for it surges when electronic payments fail due to panic, power outages, or loss of trust in banks.” Gold at all time highs.
After a few waves in social media, pundits assured the public that the ECB is not predicting a new crisis or saying “prepare for a banking system collapse.” Hmmm. I wonder what would happen if the FOMC published a similar recommendation. Yesterday, Lavrov said “NATO and the EU, through Ukraine, have declared war on Russia and are directly participating in it.”
Three games to play in the regular baseball season and three sessions to trade in Q3. NY and Toronto, Milwaukee and Cleveland … dead even.
In the markets
Stock indexes passed a typically silent night, and depending on the programming of algos this morning, the mags et al should enter with strength on a lower opening or strength on a higher opening. The pattern this week has been lower in the 1st hour with aggressive buying around 9:30/10:00 AM
Since the September S&P expiration, circa 8 million lots of down volume have traded, and open interest is up 10k on an aggregate OI of 1,958,622 lots. For every lot that got out, a new lot got in. The difference worth noting is location of the new length is +/- settlement yesterday. It would be nearly impossible for the longs taking profits to have had anything but profits.
A cynic might say the close on Tuesday, September 30 is already in the record books. The passage of a few days separates clairvoyance and reality.
Next up this morning, some technical updates on metals and the dollar before the numbers, and thoughts (right or wrong) on gold and a sober step back from AI in the vibe.
