Brief notes & updates
market vibes
December 8…)
When the bell rang there was no sound just whispering and rustling paper. Mike Wamp was sitting on the top step, sweat soaked facing away from the pit. “Good day today”’ I said, meaning trading. He said, “No one will ever know what we did here today.”
If you’re wondering why Treasury bond yields are higher this morning with the FOMC cutting taxes again on Wednesday… this Gundlach interview has aged incredibly well since April 2025.
Speaking of long bonds, the yen is lower…
Because yields in Japan are making all-time highs today. The 20-year US: 4.75%, Japan: 2.96% spread = 1.79%.
Since November 28, gold prices have settled within 0.0007% of the previous day’s settlement…“At the sound of the tone, leave your deal…”
Silver: a market that clings to its highs implies unfilled buying below the market.
Daily and weekly data in WTI is so compressed I have to go out to monthly data to find any technical nuances… This is the most reluctant down wedge I’ve seen in … ever. Probably because the multi-decade nominal point of control is so massive. WTI has been trading $50/barrel for most of the 21st century, and if it has been above or below $50, the periods have been temporary and frequently transitioning through it.
The post-GFC QE maintained very high oil prices for 4 years. The $5+ trillion AI build-out is going to have a similar QE effect as AI job loss and GCF-esque robotics put deflationary pressures on everything. Oil prices want to trade lower, but they are being artfully managed by KSA, in my opinion. If/when China stops buying, “oil will trade under $50” for a while (Doomberg).
Stocks and gold are channeling the same meditative mood pending a certain decline in the funds rate that has been certain for weeks. It’s almost as if the markets prefer a single fixed price to a daily auction.
Bitcoin is holding its high-volume isolated lows, so there may be a rally yet depending on the usual FOMC press conference and its guidance. Volumes are consistently low, and open interest has not increased for 7 sessions, underscoring the long-only nature of the futures market.
Other markets are equally vegetative. So, no trading for a couple of days.
my vibe
“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”
Have an excellent day!
JJ
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My benchmark for judging a proponent of free speech is their approach to the COVID 'vaccine' and I'm afraid on that score Anne Widdecombe loses my vote, https://x.com/CharlotteEmmaUK/status/1762206863179894847?s=20
As an NHS worker, my wife came within weeks of losing her job due to the viscous campaign waged by our government. Very, very few people had the integrity to defend informed consent and freedom of choice at the time.
I don't like to purity spiral, but we have a lot of voices willing to speak up when it doesn't matter.
I’m just going to leave this here. The CFTC “Commitment of Traders” (CoT) report came out Friday, Dec 5th as did the Bank Participation Report.
The results are in the link. JPM emptied its vaults of physical silver bullion to cover the short during the 11 hour “cooling failure induced downtime.”
The long was an “UNIDENTIFIED CUSTOMER” via Maquarie Futures.
“Daily Delivery Notices (Silver - Combined Nov 26/28):
• ISSUER (The Seller/Short):
• J.P. MORGAN SECURITIES LLC (House): 4,850
• J.P. MORGAN SECURITIES LLC (Customer): 1,200
• HSBC BANK USA (House): 1,100
• SCOTIA CAPITAL (House): 900
• STOPPER (The Buyer/Long):
• UNIDENTIFIED "CUSTOMER" (via Macquarie Futures): 6,500
• P.N.F. (Principal Not Named): 1,805”
“UNIDENTIFIED CUSTOMER” is theorized to be either India (aka the “I” in BRICS) or… the US Government.
Further analysis reveals there is no chance to survive another redemption of this size. Info in the link below.
https://g.co/gemini/share/a92649b0a880