boom or doom
market vibes
May 6…)
It ain’t over til it’s over…
in the news
May 05, 2026, 6:52 PM: “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran.” … POTUS.
This excerpted sentence from a Truth Social tweet last night has apparently developed into a hopeful reality. Oil traded as low 11% on a deal narrative this morning. No facts have been released, but the market has been the only voice worth listening to since the imbroglio (ht LP) began 9 weeks ago.
Stocks are flying and Q1 earnings are exceptionally strong. “With 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, blended EPS growth is +27.1% year-over-year (up sharply from earlier estimates around 13–15%). This would mark the highest quarterly growth since Q4 2021 and the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.” (source Grok).
in the markets
There’s been a lot of wolf calling and stop-and-go progress in peace negotiations, but developments today imply trapped money at the highs… again. It will be interesting to see how the markets unwind the layers of misinformation in day-to-day trading if, in fact, Iran agrees to capitulate.
On balance, there are select regional shortages of downstream products but in crude oil …not so much. The June/July front spread is back to its March 9 lows in a 5th day of lower lows and lower highs…..
The dollar is weak. June DXY is under its 200 D MA this morning. A bearish 1-bar false positive sits atop a gap lower on April 7 (an important date … next chart).
April 7 was the day NDX futures declared the “war” was over and Trump began his end- game of deadlines and more deadlines.
