big boy pants
market vibes
October 23 … )
An object remains at rest (the trading range), or in motion at a constant speed in a straight line (the trend) and will not change its motion unless a force acts on it (the Fed). The force on an object is equal to its mass times its acceleration (all assets vs interest rates). When two objects interact, they apply forces to each other of equal magnitude and opposite direction (gold). Sir Isaac Newton 1687
Housing data this morning at 10 AM EDT and Beige Book at 2 PM.
In war news
Zilch that might have any market impact. A peace narrative in the middle east due to the killing of a prominent Hamas leader (it is what it is). Nothing from the BRICs. Updates from Ukraine can be found in the back pages of ShopRite discounts for Häagen-Dazs.
Interest payments on the US national debt rose to 1.2 trillion in Q 3 or 23% of taxes. (Wall Street silver via X). The debt is estimated to be 37 trillion on February 1, 2025, and 40+ trillion at this time next year. Yawn…
There is some angst about declining disty stocks going into winter. The DOE reports the nation’s petroleum inventories at 10:30 AM with distillates forecast to decline by 2 mm barrels.
Fwiw… the US has been exporting 1.2 mm barrels per day of distillates since 2013.
Falling volume, open interest and prices in WTI (chart below) imply ample supplies and maybe… some putative worries about a Trump victory.
US equities will start the day lower as usual and NVDA (Chart beow) will rally during the session lifting the indexes into the close as usual. MSFT held its 20th volitile defense of The 200 D MA yesterday and rallied above it with conviction… closing at 427.
Stocks have been circling the runway at high altitudes for a long time. All-time highs by mini-basis points on comatose volumes are burning a lot of bullish fuel, imo.
In FX, gold, silver and other markets
The Yen is plunging
